European Central Bank
European Central Bank
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DOI：
10.1163/1570-6664_iyb_sim_org_2241
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发表时间：
2024-01
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Canan Gürbüz
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作者：
Canan Gürbüz
在本文中，我们估计欧元区的一个小模型将被用作评估替代货币政策策略绩效的实验室。我们从产出和通货膨胀之间的关系开始，并研究泰勒（1980）提出的名义工资收缩模型和由Buiter和Jewitt（1981）提出并由Fuhrer和Moore（1995）估计的美国相对实际工资收缩模型的三个不同版本的拟合性。虽然Fuhrer和Moore拒绝名义收缩模型，而支持导致更多通胀持续性的相对收缩模型，但我们发现这两种模型都相当适合欧元区的数据。然而，当分别考虑法国、德国和意大利时，我们发现名义收缩模型更适合德国的数据，而相对收缩模型在法国和意大利等从高通胀体制转型的国家表现得相当好。我们通过估计总需求关系来关闭模型，并研究当利率根据泰勒规则设定时，不同工资契约规范对通胀-产出可变性权衡的后果。分类：E31， E52, E58, E61
In this paper we estimate a small model of the euro area to be used as a laboratory for evaluating the performance of alternative monetary policy strategies. We start with the relationship between output and inflation and investigate the fit of the nominal wage contracting model due to Taylor (1980)and three different versions of the relative real wage contracting model proposed by Buiter and Jewitt (1981)and estimated by Fuhrer and Moore (1995a) for the United States. While Fuhrer and Moore reject the nominal contracting model in favor of the relative contracting model which induces more inflation persistence, we find that both models fit euro area data reasonably well. When considering France, Germany and Italy separately, however, we find that the nominal contracting model fits German data better, while the relative contracting model does quite well in countries which transitioned out of a high inflation regime such as France and Italy. We close the model by estimating an aggregate demand relationship and investigate the consequences of the different wage contracting specifications for the inflation-output variability tradeoff, when interest rates are set according to Taylor ’s rule. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58, E61