Probabilistic Interval Forecasts: An Individual Differences Approach to Understanding Forecast Communication
Probabilistic Interval Forecasts: An Individual Differences Approach to Understanding Forecast Communication
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DOI：
10.1155/2017/3932565
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发表时间：
2017-01-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Otsuka, Kyoko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Grounds, Margaret A.;Joslyn, Susan;Otsuka, Kyoko
与点估计相比，预测性区间预测显示具有指定概率的值范围，具有改善决策的潜力。这里报告的研究表明，这种优势从大学本科生扩展到广泛的用户群体，并且不依赖于教育。在两个实验中，参与者根据预测区间或点估计做出决策，并回答有关问题。在实验1中，他们还完成了计算能力和工作记忆广度测试。那些使用预测间隔的人能够更好地确定需要采取预防行动的情况。然而，注意到两个错误：（1）将预测间隔误解为昼夜波动（确定性一致性错误）和（2）当分别询问时，将间隔内和间隔外事件的概率判断为大于100%。这些错误只能部分地由WMS和计算能力解释。重要的是，省略可视化消除了确定性的一致性错误和高估的百分比机会并不总是与决策质量。因此，预测性区间预报可能有重要的好处，不依赖于对它们背后的理论原理的充分理解或先进的教育，使它们适合于具有不同背景，天气问题和风险承受能力的广泛用户。
Predictive interval forecasts, showing a range of values with specified probability, have the potential to improve decisions compared to point estimates. The research reported here demonstrates that this advantage extends from college undergraduates to a wide user group and does not depend on education. In two experiments, participants made decisions based on predictive intervals or point estimates and answered questions about them. In Experiment 1, they also completed numeracy and working memory span tests. Those using predictive intervals were better able to identify situations requiring precautionary action. Nonetheless, two errors were noted: (1) misinterpreting predictive intervals as diurnal fluctuation (deterministic construal errors) and (2) judging the probability of events within and beyond the interval, when asked about them separately, as greater than 100%. These errors were only partially explained by WMS and numeracy. Importantly, omitting visualizations eliminated deterministic construal errors and overestimation of percent chance was not consistently related to decision quality. Thus, there may be important benefits to predictive interval forecasts that are not dependent on a full understanding of the theoretical principles underlying them or an advanced education, making them appropriate for a broad range of users with diverse backgrounds, weather concerns, and risk tolerances.