The Ethiopian Transition: Democratization or New Authoritarianism?
The Ethiopian Transition: Democratization or New Authoritarianism?
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埃塞俄比亚转型：民主化还是新威权主义？
DOI：
10.1353/nas.1995.0028
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Ottaway
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Ottaway
20世纪90年代初成为非洲的即时民主时代，就像20世纪70年代中期是社会主义迅速转型的时代一样。在这两个时期，内部压力、外部支持者提供的胡萝卜和挥舞的大棒，以及盛行的情报讲授时尚，导致相当多的非洲政权宣称效忠当时的意识形态。事后看来，很容易得出结论，那些试图突然过渡到苏联启发的社会主义模式的非洲国家，只成功地创造了原始模式的非常苍白的复制品。他们设置了体制的正式外衣，但没有实质内容。各国政府缺乏必要的政治和经济控制工具，根本的结构条件也不利于实现理想的转型。没有后见之明，就很难对即时民主化的成功得出同样坚定的结论，但有理由怀疑，强迫的、快速的转型可能不仅仅是一个纯粹的正式过程，没有内容。埃塞俄比亚提供了一个有趣的例子，该国在20世纪70年代和80年代试图立即实现社会主义转型，现在据称正在进行雄心勃勃的民主转型尝试。这一进程始于1991年5月蒙吉斯图政权被推翻后，预计将在1995年举行新议会选举时达到顶峰。
The early 1990s became the age of instant democracy in Africa in the same way as the mid-1970s were the age of instant socialist transforma- tion. In both periods, a combination of internal pressures, the carrots offered and sticks wielded by outside supporters, and prevailing intel- lectual fashions led a considerable number of African regimes to pro- claim their allegiance to the ideology of the moment. With the benefit of hindsight, it is easy to conclude that those African countries that attempted a sudden transition to a Soviet-inspired social- ist model succeeded in creating only very pale replicas of the original. They put in place the formal trappings of the system, but without the substance. Governments lacked the necessary tools for political and eco- nomic control, and the underlying structural conditions did not lend themselves to the desired transformation. Without the benefit of hindsight, it is difficult to reach equally firm conclusions about the success of instant democratization, but there are reasons to doubt that forced, rapid transformation can be more than a purely formal process, without content. Ethiopia provides an interesting example of a country that attempted instant socialist transformation in the 1970s and 1980s and is now pur- portedly engaged in an ambitious attempt at democratic transformation. The process, which started after the overthrow of the Mengistu regime in May 1991, was expected to culminate during 1995 with the elections for a new parliament.