Predicting player churn in destiny: A Hidden Markov models approach to predicting player departure in a major online game
Predicting player churn in destiny: A Hidden Markov models approach to predicting player departure in a major online game
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预测玩家的命运流失：一种隐马尔可夫模型方法来预测大型在线游戏中的玩家离开
DOI：
10.1109/cig.2016.7860431
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Hitchens
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Tamassia;W. Raffe;R. Sifa;Anders Drachen;Fabio Zambetta;M. Hitchens
《命运》是迄今为止发行的最昂贵的数字游戏，总运营预算超过5亿美元。它是AAA级游戏的主要例子之一，AAA级游戏是指游戏行业中规模最大、销售量最大的游戏产品。Destiny是一款融合了射击游戏和大型多人在线游戏的游戏，吸引了数千万玩家。作为一款持久性的游戏，《命运》中的留存率和流失率预测对于游戏的运行至关重要，但在过去，这类游戏还没有尝试过预测。在本文中，我们提出了一个讨论的挑战，预测流失的命运，评估曲线下面积（ROC）的行为特征，并使用隐马尔可夫模型开发的流失预测模型的游戏。
Destiny is, to date, the most expensive digital game ever released with a total operating budget of over half a billion US dollars. It stands as one of the main examples of AAA titles, the term used for the largest and most heavily marketed game productions in the games industry. Destiny is a blend of a shooter game and massively multi-player online game, and has attracted dozens of millions of players. As a persistent game title, predicting retention and churn in Destiny is crucial to the running operations of the game, but prediction has not been attempted for this type of game in the past. In this paper, we present a discussion of the challenge of predicting churn in Destiny, evaluate the area under curve (ROC) of behavioral features, and use Hidden Markov Models to develop a churn prediction model for the game.