Integrated vaccination and physical distancing interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves in Chinese cities
Integrated vaccination and physical distancing interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves in Chinese cities
复制标题
综合疫苗接种和保持身体距离干预措施，以防止中国城市未来出现新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 浪潮
DOI：
10.1038/s41562-021-01063-2
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发表时间：
2021-02-18
影响因子：
29.9
通讯作者：
Lai, Shengjie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang, Bo;Wang, Jionghua;Lai, Shengjie
疫苗接种结合身体距离可以抑制复发，而不依赖于呆在家里的限制。2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行对制定预防干预措施构成重大挑战，特别是由于物理距离措施和即将推出的疫苗对减少易感社交接触和最终阻止传播的影响尚不清楚。在这里，使用匿名的移动的地理位置数据在中国，我们设计了一个移动相关的社会接触指数，以量化物理距离和疫苗接种措施的影响，在一个统一的方式。基于这一指数，我们的流行病学模型表明，疫苗接种结合物理距离可以控制复发，而不依赖于呆在家里的限制，而一个渐进的疫苗接种过程本身不能实现这一点。此外，对于中等人口密度的城市，接种疫苗可以将物理距离的持续时间缩短36%至78%，而对于高人口密度的城市，通过适度的物理距离可以很好地控制感染人数。这些发现提高了我们对疫苗接种和身体距离对城市人口密度和社会接触模式的联合影响的理解。
Vaccination combined with physical distancing can suppress resurgences without relying on stay-at-home restrictions. To achieve herd immunity, cities with a higher population density require more stringent physical distancing measures with longer durations.The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed substantial challenges to the formulation of preventive interventions, particularly since the effects of physical distancing measures and upcoming vaccines on reducing susceptible social contacts and eventually halting transmission remain unclear. Here, using anonymized mobile geolocation data in China, we devise a mobility-associated social contact index to quantify the impact of both physical distancing and vaccination measures in a unified way. Building on this index, our epidemiological model reveals that vaccination combined with physical distancing can contain resurgences without relying on stay-at-home restrictions, whereas a gradual vaccination process alone cannot achieve this. Further, for cities with medium population density, vaccination can reduce the duration of physical distancing by 36% to 78%, whereas for cities with high population density, infection numbers can be well-controlled through moderate physical distancing. These findings improve our understanding of the joint effects of vaccination and physical distancing with respect to a city's population density and social contact patterns.