Ocean iron fertilization may amplify climate change pressures on marine animal biomass for limited climate benefit.
Ocean iron fertilization may amplify climate change pressures on marine animal biomass for limited climate benefit.
复制标题
海洋铁施肥可能会放大海洋动物生物量的气候变化压力，但气候效益有限。
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.16854
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Tagliabue A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tagliabue A
气候变化情景表明，将需要大规模的二氧化碳去除（CDR）来将全球变暖保持在2°C以下，从而重新关注海洋铁肥化（OIF）。OIF先前的建模发现，虽然碳出口增加，但向低纬度生态系统的营养物质运输减少，对大气CO2的影响不大。然而，这些CDR反应与持续的气候变化的相互作用是未知的。在这里，我们结合联合收割机全球海洋地球化学和生态系统模型表明，在刺激碳封存的同时，OIF可能会在高排放情景下放大气候引起的热带海洋生产力和生态系统生物量的下降，而大气CO2的潜在下降非常有限。气候变化的“地球化学指纹”由于上层海洋分层而导致上层海洋主要营养物的枯竭，由于主要营养物消耗量的增加，该组织加强了这一点。我们的模拟表明，由于气候变化，热带地区上层营养级动物生物量的减少将在20年内加剧OIF，特别是在沿海专属经济区（EEZ），对支撑沿海社区生计和经济的渔业产生潜在影响。因此，任何基于施肥的CDR都应考虑其与持续的气候驱动变化的相互作用以及随之而来的国家专属经济区生态系统影响。
Climate change scenarios suggest that large‐scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be required to maintain global warming below 2°C, leading to renewed attention on ocean iron fertilization (OIF). Previous OIF modelling has found that while carbon export increases, nutrient transport to lower latitude ecosystems declines, resulting in a modest impact on atmospheric CO2. However, the interaction of these CDR responses with ongoing climate change is unknown. Here, we combine global ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystem models to show that, while stimulating carbon sequestration, OIF may amplify climate‐induced declines in tropical ocean productivity and ecosystem biomass under a high‐emission scenario, with very limited potential atmospheric CO2drawdown. The ‘biogeochemical fingerprint’ of climate change, that leads to depletion of upper ocean major nutrients due to upper ocean stratification, is reinforced by OIF due to greater major nutrient consumption. Our simulations show that reductions in upper trophic level animal biomass in tropical regions due to climate change would be exacerbated by OIF within ~20 years, especially in coastal exclusive economic zones (EEZs), with potential implications for fisheries that underpin the livelihoods and economies of coastal communities. Any fertilization‐based CDR should therefore consider its interaction with ongoing climate‐driven changes and the ensuing ecosystem impacts in national EEZs.