The use of simulation in property investment analysis
The use of simulation in property investment analysis
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模拟在房地产投资分析中的应用
DOI：
10.1108/14635789510099427
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发表时间：
1995
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. MacFarlane
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. MacFarlane
模拟是一种强大的分析工具，它通过检查同一模型的重复结果来促进对金融风险的调查。然而，在房地产投资环境中使用模拟并不是一件容易的事情，因为基本组成部分之间存在复杂的关系（例如周期性现金流、空置率、闲置期和资本化率）。试图审查一个简单的投资方案，其中年度净现金流量和最终资本化率的变化决定了投资的总体可行性。表明，这两个变量之间的关系，以及随着时间的推移，年度净现金流量之间的关系显著增加了投资的风险。使用不对称变量来描述这些属性特征，以及将“预期”结果解释为“平均”和“最可能”的结果。如果模拟模型要提供……
Simulation is a powerful analytical tool which facilitates an investigation of financial risk through the examination of repeated outcomes from the same model. It is not, however, an easy matter to use simulation in a property investment context due to the existence of complex relationships between the fundamental components (such as the periodic cash flows, vacancy rates, letting up periods and capitalization rates). Seeks to examine a simple investment scenario in which the variations in net annual cash flows and final capitalization rate determine the overall viability of the investment. Shows that the relationship between these two variables and between the net annual cash flows over time significantly increases the investment′s risk. The use of asymmetric variables to describe these property characteristics is also discussed as are the interpretation of “expected” outcomes as either the “average” and the “most likely” result. These are all critical considerations if the simulation model is to provide...