Does infectious disease cause global variation in the frequency of intrastate armed conflict and civil war?
Does infectious disease cause global variation in the frequency of intrastate armed conflict and civil war?
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1469-185x.2010.00133.x
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发表时间：
2010-08-01
影响因子：
10
通讯作者：
Thornhill, Randy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Letendre, Kenneth;Fincher, Corey L.;Thornhill, Randy
国家内部武装冲突和内战频率的地理和跨国差异是一个非常感兴趣的主题。以前关于这种变化的理论主要集中在气候、资源竞争、国家财富和文化特征对人类行为的影响。我们提出了寄生虫压力模型的国家内部冲突，它团结了以前的工作，国家内部冲突的相关因素，这种冲突的爆发频率，包括内战，在世界各国的传染病的强度。传染病发病率高，导致仇外心理和种族中心主义文化规范的出现。由于疾病造成的发病率和死亡率以及公共卫生和福利投资的减少，这些文化遭受更大的贫困和剥夺。一个国家内的仇外和种族中心主义群体之间的资源竞争导致内战更加频繁。我们提出了支持的寄生虫应力模型与回归分析。我们发现支持传染病对国内武装冲突的直接影响，并支持通过其对国家财富的负面影响传染病对内战的发生率的间接影响。我们考虑冲突反馈导致财富进一步减少和疾病发病率增加的纠缠，并讨论对国际战争以及全球财富和帝国主义模式的影响。
Geographic and cross-national variation in the frequency of intrastate armed conflict and civil war is a subject of great interest. Previous theory on this variation has focused on the influence on human behaviour of climate, resource competition, national wealth, and cultural characteristics. We present the parasite-stress model of intrastate conflict, which unites previous work on the correlates of intrastate conflict by linking frequency of the outbreak of such conflict, including civil war, to the intensity of infectious disease across countries of the world. High intensity of infectious disease leads to the emergence of xenophobic and ethnocentric cultural norms. These cultures suffer greater poverty and deprivation due to the morbidity and mortality caused by disease, and as a result of decreased investment in public health and welfare. Resource competition among xenophobic and ethnocentric groups within a nation leads to increased frequency of civil war. We present support for the parasite-stress model with regression analyses. We find support for a direct effect of infectious disease on intrastate armed conflict, and support for an indirect effect of infectious disease on the incidence of civil war via its negative effect on national wealth. We consider the entanglements of feedback of conflict into further reduced wealth and increased incidence of disease, and discuss implications for international warfare and global patterns of wealth and imperialism.