"This Rally is Not Authorized": Preventive Repression and Public Opinion in Electoral Autocracies
"This Rally is Not Authorized": Preventive Repression and Public Opinion in Electoral Autocracies
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“这次集会未经授权”：选举专制国家的预防性镇压和舆论
作者：
Katerina Tertytchnaya
预防性镇压是否会抑制或加强对那些尽管受到阻挠但仍持异议的群体的群众支持？虽然大量文献承认预防性镇压对专制稳定的重要性，但我们对它对公众舆论的影响知之甚少。为了获得对这个问题的关注，本文利用了俄罗斯未经授权和授权的抗议活动的异常详细数据以及原始调查实验的证据。提交人表明，当当局进行预防性镇压时，例如当他们拒绝批准抗议时，抗议者获得支持的能力就会受到损害。预防性镇压也限制了非暴力示威者策略对公众舆论的影响。然而，这些影响取决于公民对法律和当局的态度。这篇文章的发现提供了预防性镇压的群众舆论影响的第一个因果检验扩展了我们对镇压的后果和受众的理解，并对专制弹性的研究产生了影响。
abstract:Does preventive repression dampen or does it bolster mass support for groups that dissent despite obstruction? Although a large literature recognizes the importance of preventive repression for authoritarian stability, we know very little about its effects on public opinion. To gain traction on this question, this article draws on evidence from unusually detailed data on unauthorized and authorized protests from Russia and an original survey experiment. The author shows that when authorities engage in preventive repression, such as when they deny protest authorizations, protesters' ability to generate support is compromised. Preventive repression also conditions the effect of nonviolent demonstrator tactics on public opinion. These effects, however, are contingent on citizens' attitudes about the law and the authorities. This article's findings—which provide one of the first causal tests of the mass opinion effects of preventive repression—expand our understanding of the consequences and audiences of repression and have implications for studies of authoritarian resilience.