Optimal Averaging of Seasonal Sea Surface Temperatures and Associated Confidence Intervals (1860–1989)
Optimal Averaging of Seasonal Sea Surface Temperatures and Associated Confidence Intervals (1860–1989)
复制标题
季节性海面温度和相关置信区间的最佳平均（1860-1989）
DOI：
10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007
复制
发表时间：
1994
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
C. Ropelewski
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Thomas M. Smith;R. Reynolds;C. Ropelewski
摘要 最优平均 (OA) 用于计算 1860 年至 1989 年间各个地区的区域平均季节性海面温度 (SST)。OA 提供了统计上改进的平均值以及对这些平均值的置信区间的客观分配。分配置信区间的能力是该方法的主要优点。置信区间反映了平均季节期间对某个区域进行采样的密集程度和均匀程度。对于全球平均水平而言，记录早期（1860-1890）和两次世界大战时期的不确定性最大。基于 OA 的不确定性估计分析表明，1930 年之前南半球的采样与北半球的采样一样好。大约从1930年到1950年，两个半球的不确定性都减少了，但北半球的不确定性减少得更多，而且仍然较小。 20 世纪 50 年代初之后，两个半球的不确定性相对稳定，这表明抽样相对...
Abstract Optimal averaging (OA) is used to compute the area-average seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) for a variety of areas from 1860 to 1989. The OA gives statistically improved averages and the objective assignment of confidence intervals to these averages. The ability to assign confidence intervals is the main advantage of this method. Confidence intervals reflect how densely and uniformly an area is sampled during the averaging season. For the global average, the early part of the record (1860–1890) and the times of the two world wars have largest uncertainties. Analysis of OA-based uncertainty estimates shows that before 1930 sampling in the Southern Hemisphere was as good as it was in the Northern Hemisphere. From about 1930 to 1950, uncertainties decreased in both hemispheres, but the magnitude of the Northern Hemisphere uncertainties reduced more and remained smaller. After the early 1950s uncertainties were relatively constant in both hemispheres, indicating that sampling was relatively con...