Are plant species able to keep pace with the rapidly changing climate?
Are plant species able to keep pace with the rapidly changing climate?
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0067909
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Tackenberg O
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cunze S;Heydel F;Tackenberg O
未来的气候变化预计将比冰后期变暖更快。因此，移徙可能成为生物多样性和生态系统功能未来发展的关键驱动力。对于140个欧洲植物物种，我们计算了自末次冰期以来的范围变化和未来的范围变化的各种政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的情景和全球环流模型（GCM）。通过物种分布模型（SDM）估计范围移动率。基于过程的种子传播模型，我们估计了27个传播模式的物种特定的迁移率，解决风传播（风播）不同的风条件下，以及传播的哺乳动物（动物的外套上的传播- epizoochory和传播后的动物喂养和消化- endozoochory）考虑不同的动物物种。我们的过程为基础的建模迁移率普遍超过了冰后期范围的变化率，表明我们使用的过程为基础的模型能够预测迁移率，是根据实现过去的迁移。对于大多数考虑的物种，模拟迁移率大大低于预期的未来气候变化引起的范围移动率。这意味着，大多数植物物种将无法完全遵循未来的气候变化引起的范围转移，由于扩散的限制。动物与大的一天和家庭的范围是非常重要的，以实现高迁移率的许多植物物种，而风播是相关的只有少数物种。
Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs). Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM). With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory) for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat – epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion – endozoochory) considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species.