Studies of Mortality of Atomic Bomb Survivors. Report 13: Solid Cancer and Noncancer Disease Mortality: 1950-1997
Studies of Mortality of Atomic Bomb Survivors. Report 13: Solid Cancer and Noncancer Disease Mortality: 1950-1997
复制标题
DOI：
10.1667/rrav12.1
复制
发表时间：
2012-08-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Mabuchi, Kiyohiko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Preston, Dale L.;Shimizu, Yukiko;Mabuchi, Kiyohiko
普雷斯顿，D.L.，清水，Y.，皮尔斯，D.A.，Suyama，A.和Mabuchi，K.原子弹幸存者的死亡率研究。报告13：实体癌症和非癌症疾病死亡率：1950-1997年。辐射。第160,381-407号决议(2003)。这是关于辐射影响研究基金会后续行动的原子弹幸存者队列死亡率的一系列一般性报告的延续。这一队列包括86,572名个人剂量估计者，其中60%的人剂量至少为5mSv。我们考虑实体癌的死亡率和非癌症疾病的死亡率，并额外随访7年。在47年的随访中，共有9,335人死于实体癌症，31,881人死于非癌症疾病。其中，19%的实体癌死亡和15%的非癌症死亡发生在最近7年。我们估计，大约440例(5%)的实体癌死亡和250例(0.8%)的非癌症死亡与辐射暴露有关。即使在0到150毫西弗的剂量范围内，过量的固体癌症风险似乎也与剂量呈线性关系。虽然辐射相关癌症的超额发病率在整个研究期间都在增加，但一项新的发现是，相对风险随着年龄的增长而下降，正如之前所指出的，那些在儿童时期接触过辐射的人的相对风险最高。一个有用的代表性价值是，对于那些在30岁时暴露于此的人来说，在70岁时，实体癌风险每西弗增加47%。在相对或绝对过量的实体癌风险方面，没有显著的城市差异。具体地点的分析突出了在区分具体地点的相对风险方面的困难和需要谨慎。这些分析还提供了对LSS对暴露年龄影响的估计进行解释和推广的困难。辐射对非癌症死亡率影响的证据仍然很强，在过去30年的随访中，风险每西弗增加约14%。心脏病、中风、消化系统疾病和呼吸系统疾病的发病率在统计上有显著增长。由于数据中的大量不确定性，非癌症数据与剂量响应中的一些非线性一致。没有直接证据表明低于约0.5Sv的剂量会产生辐射效应。虽然非癌症的相对风险在年龄、暴露年龄或性别方面没有统计上的显著差异，但估计的影响与癌症的影响相当。终生风险总结用于检查LSS非癌症疾病研究结果的不确定性。(C)2003年，由辐射研究学会提供
Preston, D. L., Shimizu, Y., Pierce, D. A., Suyama, A. and Mabuchi, K. Studies of Mortality of Atomic Bomb Survivors. Report 13: Solid Cancer and Noncancer Disease Mortality: 1950-1997. Radiat. Res. 160, 381-407 (2003).This continues the series of general reports on mortality in the cohort of atomic bomb survivors followed up by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation. This cohort includes 86,572 people with individual dose estimates, 60% of whom have doses of at least 5 mSv. We consider mortality for solid cancer and for noncancer diseases with 7 additional years of follow-up. There have been 9,335 deaths from solid cancer and 31,881 deaths from noncancer diseases during the 47-year follow-up. Of these, 19% of the solid cancer and 15% of the noncancer deaths occurred during the latest 7 years. We estimate that about 440 (5%) of the solid cancer deaths and 250 (0.8%) of the noncancer deaths were associated with the radiation exposure. The excess solid cancer risks appear to be linear in dose even for doses in the 0 to 150-mSv range. While excess rates for radiation-related cancers increase throughout the study period, a new finding is that relative risks decline with increasing attained age, as well as being highest for those exposed as children as noted previously. A useful representative value is that for those exposed at age 30 the solid cancer risk is elevated by 47% per sievert at age 70. There is no significant city difference in either the relative or absolute excess solid cancer risk. Site-specific analyses highlight the difficulties, and need for caution, in distinguishing between site-specific relative risks. These analyses also provide insight into the difficulties in interpretation and generalization of LSS estimates of age-at-exposure effects. The evidence for radiation effects on noncancer mortality remains strong, with risks elevated by about 14% per sievert during the last 30 years of follow-up. Statistically significant increases are seen for heart disease, stroke, digestive diseases, and respiratory diseases. The noncancer data are consistent with some non-linearity in the dose response owing to the substantial uncertainties in the data. There is no direct evidence of radiation effects for doses less than about 0.5 Sv. While there are no statistically significant variations in noncancer relative risks with age, age at exposure, or sex, the estimated effects are comparable to those seen for cancer. Lifetime risk summaries are used to examine uncertainties of the LSS noncancer disease findings. (C) 2003 by Radiation Research Society