Effects of biogenic emission uncertainties on regional photochemical modeling of control strategies
Effects of biogenic emission uncertainties on regional photochemical modeling of control strategies
复制标题
生物排放不确定性对控制策略区域光化学模型的影响
DOI：
10.1016/1352-2310(94)90138-4
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发表时间：
1994
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
S. Roselle
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Roselle
区域臭氧（03）建模的敏感性，在生物排放估计的不确定性进行了研究，与美国环境保护局的区域氧化剂模型（ROM）。模拟了1988年7月2日至17日期间美国东北部的光化学氧化剂，这是过去十年中最严重的空气停滞事件之一。在模拟中，生物源碳氢化合物排放量按系数3进行调整，以考虑到这些排放量中现有的不确定性范围。生物排放的不确定性对O3预测的影响取决于NOx的可用性。在大多数情况下，O3浓度的增加，在生物碳氢化合物排放量的增加。然而，在一些极端氮氧化物限制的地区，增加生物排放量减少O3浓度。在模拟中还研究了两种控制策略：（1）减少人为碳氢化合物排放，（2）减少人为碳氢化合物和NOx排放。模拟结果表明，控制碳氢化合物排放对纽约市地区更有利，但结合NO和碳氢化合物控制对东北部其他地区更有利。在大多数情况下，在生物源排放的不确定性范围内，对综合战略的偏好仍然存在。在某些局部地区，对控制技术的偏好取决于假定的生物源排放水平。
The sensitivity of regional ozone (03) modeling to uncertainties in biogenic emission estimates has been studied with the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Regional Oxidant Model (ROM). Photochemical oxidants in the northeastern United States were simulated for the period 2–17 July 1988, one of the most severe air stagnation episodes in the last decade. In the simulations, biogenic hydrocarbon emissions were adjusted by a factor of 3 to account for the existing range of uncertainty in these emissions. The impact of biogenic emission uncertainties on O3predictions depended upon the availability of NOx. In most cases, O3concentrations increased in response to increases in biogenic hydrocarbon emissions. However, in some extremely NOx-limited areas, increasing the amount of biogenic emissions decreased O3concentrations. Two control strategies were also examined in the simulations: (1) reduced anthropogenic hydrocarbon emissions, and (2) reduced anthropogenic hydrocarbon and NOxemissions. The simulations showed that controls of hydrocarbon emissions were more beneficial to the New York City area, but that combined NO, and hydrocarbon controls were more beneficial to other areas of the Northeast. For the most part, the preference for a combined strategy persisted across the range of uncertainty in biogenic emissions. There were some localized areas where the preference for control technique depended upon the assumed level of biogenic emissions.