A Tri-Reference Point Theory of Decision Making Under Risk
A Tri-Reference Point Theory of Decision Making Under Risk
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DOI：
10.1037/a0027415
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发表时间：
2012-11-01
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Johnson, Joseph G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang, X. T.;Johnson, Joseph G.
三参考点(TRP)理论在风险决策中考虑了最低要求(MR)、现状(SQ)和目标(G)。这3个参考点将风险结果和风险感知划分为4个功能区：成功(x&>；=G的期望值)、收益(x<；X<；G)、损失(MR G&>；sq。我们给出了TRP假设和值函数，并给出了该理论的数学形式。我们使用显式和隐式参考点对关键的TRP预测进行了实证测试。我们发现决策者同时考虑了G和MR，并且比G给予MR更大的权重，这表明除了损失厌恶(即，损失的不良效用大于相同数量的收益的效用)之外，还存在失败厌恶(即，失败的不良效用大于在同一任务中成功的效用)。由具有3个拐点的双S形价值函数捕捉到，当赌博的分布跨越不同的参照点时，风险偏好在寻求风险和规避风险之间切换。MR(而不是G)的存在显着地将选择偏好转向了风险规避，即使赌博的结果分布远远高于MR基于单一参考点的模型，如前景理论，也不能一致地解释这些发现。TRP理论为评估个人和组织管理的风险选择提供了简单的指导方针。
The tri-reference point (TRP) theory takes into account minimum requirements (MR), the status quo (SQ), and goals (G) in decision making under risk. The 3 reference points demarcate risky outcomes and risk perception into 4 functional regions: success (expected value of x >= G), gain (SQ < X < G), loss (MR G > SQ. We present TRP assumptions and value functions and a mathematical formalization of the theory. We conducted empirical tests of crucial TRP predictions using both explicit and implicit reference points. We show that decision makers consider both G and MR and give greater weight to MR than G, indicating failure aversion (i.e., the disutility of a failure is greater than the utility of a success in the same task) in addition to loss aversion (i.e., the disutility of a loss is greater than the utility of the same amount of gain). Captured by a double-S shaped value function with 3 inflection points, risk preferences switched between risk seeking and risk aversion when the distribution of a gamble straddled a different reference point. The existence of MR (not G) significantly shifted choice preference toward risk aversion even when the outcome distribution of a gamble was well above the MR. Single reference point based models such as prospect theory cannot consistently account for these findings. The TRP theory provides simple guidelines for evaluating risky choices for individuals and organizational management.