Putin, the State, and War: The Causes of Russia’s Near Abroad Assertion Revisited
Putin, the State, and War: The Causes of Russia’s Near Abroad Assertion Revisited
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普京、国家和战争：重新审视俄罗斯近邻主张的原因
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发表时间：
2017
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通讯作者：
Elias Götz
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文献类型：
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作者：
Elias Götz
莫斯科吞并克里米亚和干涉乌克兰东部的行为是俄罗斯在后苏联地区日益自信的最新迹象。毫不奇怪，莫斯科的行动已成为许多争论的根源。本文梳理了关于这一主题的快速增长的文献，并评估了四种类型的解释：（1）决策者的解释，侧重于普京的个性特征和世界观;（2）国内政治解释，强调克里姆林宫努力转移人们对内部失败的注意力;（3）概念性解释，解释俄罗斯的近邻主张，参考其国家身份和对国际地位的渴望;（4）地缘政治账户，强调权力和安全考虑。这篇文章表明，每种方法都提供了一些有价值的见解，但未能提供令人信服的独立解释。有人认为，为了克服所发现的缺点，学者们需要投入更多的精力来建立综合账户。概述了一个理论模型，具体说明如何地缘政治压力，思想，国内政治条件和决策者的影响相互作用，在塑造俄罗斯的近邻国外政策。
Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and meddling in eastern Ukraine are the latest signs of Russia’s increasingly assertive behavior in the post-Soviet space. Not surprisingly, Moscow’s actions have become the source of much debate. This article maps the fast-growing literature on the subject and assesses four types of explanations: (1) decision-maker explanations focusing on Putin’s personality traits and worldviews; (2) domestic political accounts emphasizing the Kremlin’s efforts to deflect attention from internal failures; (3) ideational accounts explaining Russia’s near abroad assertion with reference to its national identity and desire for international status; and (4) geopolitical accounts highlighting power and security considerations. The article shows that each approach offers some valuable insights but fails to provide a convincing stand-alone explanation. It is argued that to overcome the identified shortcomings, scholars need to devote more attention to building synthetic accounts. A theoretical model is outlined that specifies how geopolitical pressures, ideas, domestic political conditions, and decision-maker influences interact in shaping Russia’s near abroad policy.