Climate and management interaction cause diverse crop phenology trends
Climate and management interaction cause diverse crop phenology trends
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.11.003
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发表时间：
2017-02-15
影响因子：
6.2
通讯作者：
Ewert, Frank
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi;Siebert, Stefan;Ewert, Frank
越来越多的证据表明，在过去的几十年里，在世界许多地区观察到的变暖趋势在很大程度上改变了作物的物候，但人们对作物管理的变化对作物物候的影响、与气温上升的可能相互作用以及是否可以在不同作物类型之间普遍适用的反应知之甚少。本文利用德国1960-2013年冬季油菜籽和冬黑麦的观测资料，利用温度和物候数据的分段线性回归，评价了气候和管理对作物物候的影响。我们表明，作物物候的长期趋势是特定于作物的。1979-2013年间，冬油菜营养生长期每十年减少4.8天。然而，在1978-2013年期间，冬黑麦的相应降幅仅为每十年1.3天，这是由于管理做法的变化造成的差异，例如引进了冬油菜早花品种或在过去几十年改变了冬油菜和冬黑麦的播种日期。在1976至2013年间，冬黑麦的生殖期长度每十年减少0.9天，以应对这一时期的变暖趋势。相比之下，籽粒灌浆期较长和种植密度变化的晚熟品种的推广使用，过度补偿了气温升高对冬油菜生殖期长度的影响，导致1992-2013年间每十年增加2.0天。在1972-2013年期间，冬黑麦播种期每十年提前1.3天。两种作物从成熟期到收获期的时长都大大增加，并部分补偿了气温升高缩短之前物候期的影响。我们的结论是，在气候变化影响分析和评估研究中必须考虑气候和作物管理之间的相互作用，并需要考虑作物之间的差异。(C)2016爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
Growing evidence suggests that the warming trend observed in many parts of the world has considerably modified crop phenology during the last decades but little is known about the impact of changes in crop management on crop phenology and possible interactions with temperature increase, and whether responses can be generalized across crop types. Here we evaluate the effects of climate and management on crop phenology by using observations for winter rapeseed and winter rye obtained in Germany for the period 1960-2013 by using piecewise linear regressions of temperature and phenology data on year. We show that long-term trends in crop phenology are crop-specific. The length of the vegetative phase of winter rapeseed declined by 4.8 days per decade in the period 1979-2013. However, the corresponding decline for winter rye was only 1.3 days per decade in the period 1978-2013 with the difference caused by change in management practices such as the introduction of early flowering cultivars of winter rapeseed or changes in sowing date of winter rapeseed and winter rye during the last decades in Germany. The length of the reproductive phase of winter rye declined by 0.9 days per decade between 1976 and 2013 in response to the warming trend in that period. In contrast, the extended use of late maturing cultivars with a longer grain filling period and changed planting densities over-compensated for the effect of increasing temperature on the length of the reproductive phase of winter rapeseed and caused an increasing trend of 2.0 days per decade between 1992 and 2013. The sowing date of winter rye advanced by 1.3 days per decade in the period 1972-2013. The length of the phase between maturity and harvest increased considerably for both crops and compensated partly for the effect of increasing temperature to shorten the preceding phenological phases. We conclude that it is essential to account for interactions between climate and crop management in climate change impact analysis and assessment studies and that differences among crops need to be considered. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.