A Real Options-Based Decision-Making Model for Infrastructure Investment to Prevent Rainstorm Disasters
A Real Options-Based Decision-Making Model for Infrastructure Investment to Prevent Rainstorm Disasters
复制标题
基于实物期权的防暴雨灾害基础设施投资决策模型
DOI：
10.1111/poms.13074
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Li Guijun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang Tao;Liu Bingsheng;Zhang Jiaming;Li Guijun
全球气候变化引起的极端降水预计将对城市化地区产生严重影响。尽管决策者正在努力应对气候不确定性，但有效的基础设施适应战略非常重视预防降雨造成的灾害。我们提出了一个决策模型，将降雨灾害的概率纳入其中，并建议在评估与气候适应相关的项目时投入时间。我们利用水文统计模型和经济技术因素来估算几种降雨灾害情景下的预期经济损失，并采用实物期权定价方法计算适应基础设施的价值。然后将该决策模型应用于涉及中国北京中央财经大学校园降雨防灾设施的案例研究。我们建立了三种不同降雨强度的淹没情景，然后评估了持有延期期权的溢价，并指出了每种情景下的最佳投资时间。该模型预计将为社区和大学等相对较小的地区的适应基础设施的发展提供指导。我们证明，使用基于实物期权的方法可以为投资者提供更大的管理灵活性。
Extreme precipitation caused by global climate change is expected to have a severe impact on urbanized areas. While decision‐makers struggle with climate uncertainty, an effective infrastructure adaptation strategy attaches great importance to preventing disasters resulting from rainfall. We propose a decision‐making model to incorporate the probability of rainfall disasters and recommend investing time when evaluating projects related to climate adaptation. We use a hydrological statistical model and economic and technical factors to estimate the expected economic losses in several rainfall disaster scenarios, and the value of the adaptation infrastructures is calculated using a real options pricing approach. Then the decision‐making model is applied to a case study involving a campus rainfall disaster prevention facility at the Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing, China. We established three submerged scenarios with different rainfall intensities, then we evaluated the premium of holding an option to defer and pointed out the optimal investing time in each scenario. This model is expected to provide guidance for the development of adaptation infrastructure for relatively small areas such as communities and universities. And we proved that using real options‐based approach could provide more managerial flexibility for investors.