Opportunities for climate-risk reduction through effective fisheries management
Opportunities for climate-risk reduction through effective fisheries management
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.14390
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发表时间：
2018-11-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Frolicher, Thomas L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cheung, William W. L.;Jones, Miranda C.;Frolicher, Thomas L.
海洋鱼类对捕捞和气候变化（包括海洋酸化）的影响风险取决于该物种的生态和生物特征，以及它们是否受到过度开发和气候灾害的影响。这些人为危害应同时考虑在保护风险评估。在这项研究中，我们的目的是研究气候变化和渔业的综合贡献的影响，捕捞鱼类的风险，以及渔业管理的气候风险降低的范围。我们将联合收割机模糊逻辑专家系统与物种分布模型相结合，以评估全球海洋中825种已开发海洋鱼类物种的气候和捕捞影响的灭绝风险。我们将计算出的风险指数与国际自然保护联盟（IUCN）评估的海洋物种灭绝风险进行比较。我们的研究结果表明，预计到2050年，60%（499个物种）的评估物种将经历非常高的风险，从过度捕捞和气候变化的“一切照旧”的情况下（RCP 8.5与渔业现状）。风险指数与IUCN灭绝风险水平呈显著正相关（有序Logistic回归，p < 0.0001）。此外，回归模型预测，风险指数非常高的物种在未来几十年内至少有五分之一（>20%）的机会具有高灭绝风险（相当于IUCN的脆弱，濒危或极度濒危类别）。受气候变化威胁的物种较多的地区是热带和亚热带海洋，而受捕捞威胁的物种分布较广，受威胁物种集中在北大西洋和南太平洋。与“一切照旧”情景相比，在可持续生态系统低排放情景下，具有高灭绝风险的物种数量将减少63%。这项研究强调了通过有效的渔业管理减少气候风险的巨大机会。
Risk of impact of marine fishes to fishing and climate change (including ocean acidification) depend on the species' ecological and biological characteristics, as well as their exposure to over-exploitation and climate hazards. These human-induced hazards should be considered concurrently in conservation risk assessment. In this study, we aim to examine the combined contributions of climate change and fishing to the risk of impacts of exploited fishes, and the scope for climate-risk reduction from fisheries management. We combine fuzzy logic expert system with species distribution modeling to assess the extinction risks of climate and fishing impacts of 825 exploited marine fish species across the global ocean. We compare our calculated risk index with extinction risk of marine species assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Our results show that 60% (499 species) of the assessed species are projected to experience very high risk from both overfishing and climate change under a "business-as-usual" scenario (RCP 8.5 with current status of fisheries) by 2050. The risk index is significantly and positively related to level of IUCN extinction risk (ordinal logistic regression, p < 0.0001). Furthermore, the regression model predicts species with very high risk index would have at least one in five (>20%) chance of having high extinction risk in the next few decades (equivalent to the IUCN categories of vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered). Areas with more at-risk species to climate change are in tropical and subtropical oceans, while those that are at risk to fishing are distributed more broadly, with higher concentration of at-risk species in North Atlantic and South Pacific Ocean. The number of species with high extinction risk would decrease by 63% under the sustainable fisheries-low emission scenario relative to the "business-as-usual" scenario. This study highlights the substantial opportunities for climate-risk reduction through effective fisheries management.