Analyzing cascading effects within infrastructure sectors for consequence reduction
Analyzing cascading effects within infrastructure sectors for consequence reduction
复制标题
分析基础设施部门内的连锁效应以减少后果
DOI：
10.1109/ths.2009.5168029
复制
发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
C. Restrepo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Zimmerman;C. Restrepo
恐怖袭击或自然灾害造成的基础设施故障的连锁效应可能会大大增加任何特定基础设施故障的影响程度。基础设施部门之间的相互依赖性在一定程度上推动了这些影响。人们对了解相互依赖性如何运作和如何增强影响以制定改善恢复的程序和政策的了解还不太清楚。本文首先提出了一个会计系统来识别哪里可能出现相互依赖性。其次，考虑到相互依赖性，从先前的研究和事件数据库中提出了描述相互依赖性中的漏洞并用定性或整数尺度估计严重程度的方法。量化相互依赖性和相关级联的方法建立在停电及其对石油和天然气、电力、交通和水等其他基础设施影响的研究基础上。该方法可用于分析恢复时间与互连失败类型之间的联系以及减少级联影响的替代技术。
Cascading effects of infrastructure failures from terrorist attacks or natural hazards can greatly increase the magnitude of impacts from a failure of any given infrastructure. Interdependencies among infrastructure sectors in part drive these effects. Capturing how interdependencies operate and heighten impacts to develop procedures and policies to improve recovery is less well understood. This paper first presents an accounting system to identify where interdependencies are likely to occur. Second, given interdependencies, ways to portray vulnerabilities from interdependencies and estimate magnitude with qualitative or integer scales are presented from prior research and event databases. The methodology to quantify interdependencies and associated cascades builds on work on electric power outages and impacts they had on other infrastructure, such as oil and natural gas, electricity, transportation, and water. The method can be used to analyze connections between restoration times and types of interconnections failed and alternative technologies to reduce impacts of cascades.