Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Asian Forests Through an Influence on Phenology
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Asian Forests Through an Influence on Phenology
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气候变化对物候的影响对亚洲热带森林的潜在影响
DOI：
10.1007/978-94-017-2730-3_14
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发表时间：
1998
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
J. Lafrankie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Corlett;J. Lafrankie
植物物候的变化将是对全球快速气候变化最早的响应之一，并且可能对植物以及依赖周期性可用植物资源的动物产生严重后果。物候模式在热带地区最为多样且最不为人所了解。在亚洲热带的一些地区，低温或干旱导致了季节性的休眠期，在个体、种群和群落层面，生长和繁殖的规律年度周期占主导地位。在无季节地区，个体和种群表现出一系列从短于一年到长于一年的周期，在群落层面总体呈现长于一年的繁殖周期。没有证据表明亚洲热带地区的物候受光周期控制，温度的季节性变化可能只是在北部边缘地区是一个因素。对水分可利用性的机会性响应是对大多数观察到的水分季节性受限模式的最简单解释，而无季节热带地区物候模式的巨大多样性表明其控制因素也同样多样。当前物候模式对年际和空间高度变异性的稳健性表明，大多数植物物种不会仅仅因气候变化的物候后果而受到严重影响。然而，一些个别植物物种可能会受到影响，而且在碎片化森林中植物物候变化对依赖花朵和果实的动物的影响可能是严重的。
Changes in plant phenology will be one of the earliest responses to rapid global climate change and could potentially have serious consequences both for plants and for animals that depend on periodically available plant resources. Phenological patterns are most diverse and least understood in the tropics. In those parts of tropical Asia where low temperature or drought impose a seasonal rest period, regular annual cycles of growth and reproduction predominate at the individual, population, and community level. In aseasonal areas, individuals and populations show a range of sub- to supra-annual periodicities, with an overall supra-annual reproductive periodicity at the community level. There is no evidence for photoperiod control of phenology in the Asian tropics, and seasonal changes in temperature are a likely factor only near the northern margins. An opportunistic response to water availability is the simplest explanation for most observed patterns where water is seasonally limiting, while the great diversity of phenological patterns in the aseasonal tropics suggests an equal diversity of controls. The robustness of current phenological patterns to high interannual and spatial variability suggests that most plant species will not be seriously affected by the phenological consequences alone of climate change. However, some individual plant species may suffer, and the consequences of changes in plant phenology for flower- and fruit-dependent animals in fragmented forests could be serious.