Projected Increases in Precipitation Are Expected To Reduce Nitrogen Use Efficiency and Alter Optimal Fertilization Timings in Agriculture in the South East of England.
Projected Increases in Precipitation Are Expected To Reduce Nitrogen Use Efficiency and Alter Optimal Fertilization Timings in Agriculture in the South East of England.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1021/acsestengg.1c00492
复制
发表时间：
2022-08-12
影响因子：
7.1
通讯作者：
Roose, Tiina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McKay Fletcher, Dan;Ruiz, Siul;Williams, Katherine;Petroselli, Chiara;Walker, Nancy;Chadwick, David;Jones, Davey L;Roose, Tiina
氮肥对农业生产和土地有效利用至关重要。然而，在全球范围内，大约50%的氮肥流失到环境中，造成效率低下、污染和温室气体排放。降雨及其对土壤水分的影响是控制农业氮素流失的主要因素。因此，降雨模式的改变可能会加速氮的低效。我们使用了一个机械建模平台来确定降水-最佳氮肥施肥时间和由此产生的作物氮吸收在历史上（1950-2020）是如何变化的，以及在RCP8.5气候情景下（2021-2069）它们将如何变化。我们发现，从历史上看，降水最佳施肥时机和由此产生的植物吸收都没有显著变化。然而，这两项指标每年的变化都很大。在21世纪30年代，预计将变得更湿润，降水最佳施肥时间预计将在季节晚些时候，因此植物的吸收量明显降低。在2040年以后，预估的降水最优吸收量增加，越早的降水最优时间越接近历史值，对应于预估的平均日降雨量在这些生长季节减少到历史值。预估降水最佳吸收量的年际变化似乎会增加。最终，预计降水模式的变化将影响氮素吸收和降水最佳施肥时机。我们认为，每年使用定制施肥时间可以帮助恢复由于降水变化而减少的氮吸收。
Nitrogen fertilization is vital for productive agriculture and efficient land use. However, globally, approximately 50% of the nitrogen applied is lost to the environment, causing inefficiencies, pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. Rainfall and its effect on soil moisture are the major components controlling nitrogen losses in agriculture. Thus, changing rainfall patterns could accelerate nitrogen inefficiencies. We used a mechanistic modeling platform to determine how precipitation-optimal nitrogen fertilization timings and resulting crop nitrogen uptake have changed historically (1950–2020) and how they are predicted to change under the RCP8.5 climate scenario (2021–2069) in the South East of England. We found that historically, neither precipitation-optimal fertilization timings nor resulting plant uptake changed significantly. However, there were large year-to-year variations in both. In the 2030s, where it is projected to get wetter, precipitation-optimal fertilization timings are predicted to be later in the season and the resulting plant uptake noticeably lower. After 2040, the precipitation-optimal uptakes are projected to increase with earlier precipitation-optimal timings closer to historical values, corresponding to the projected mean daily rainfall rates decreasing to the historical values in these growing seasons. It seems that the interannual variation in precipitation-optimal uptake is projected to increase. Ultimately, projected changes in precipitation patterns will affect nitrogen uptake and precipitation-optimal fertilization timings. We argue that the use of bespoke fertilization timings in each year can help recuperate the reduced N uptake due to changing precipitation.