Urbanization exacerbated the rainfall and flooding caused by hurricane Harvey in Houston
Urbanization exacerbated the rainfall and flooding caused by hurricane Harvey in Houston
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DOI：
10.1038/s41586-018-0676-z
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发表时间：
2018-11-15
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Smith, James A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang, Wei;Villarini, Gabriele;Smith, James A.
4级登陆飓风“哈维”在人口稠密的休斯敦地区降下了超过一米的降雨量，导致了前所未有的洪水和破坏。尽管研究已经关注了人为气候变化对这一极端降雨事件的影响（1 - 3），但城市化对与飓风“哈维”相关的水文气象的潜在影响却受到的关注有限。在此我们发现，城市化不仅加剧了洪水反应，还增加了风暴总降雨量。利用天气研究与预报模型（一种用于模拟区域尺度天气和气候的数值模型）以及统计模型，我们量化了城市化对降雨和洪水的影响。总体而言，我们发现，由于城市化，在2017年8月25日至30日期间，所研究的流域发生此类极端洪水事件的概率平均增加了约21倍。城市化对风暴引发的极端降水和洪水的影响应该更明确地纳入全球气候模型中，并且这项研究在评估高度城市化的沿海地区此类极端事件的未来风险时凸显了其重要性。
Category 4 landfalling hurricane Harvey poured more than a metre of rainfall across the heavily populated Houston area, leading to unprecedented flooding and damage. Although studies have focused on the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to this extreme rainfall event(1-3), limited attention has been paid to the potential effects of urbanization on the hydrometeorology associated with hurricane Harvey. Here we find that urbanization exacerbated not only the flood response but also the storm total rainfall. Using the Weather Research and Forecast model-a numerical model for simulating weather and climate at regional scales-and statistical models, we quantify the contribution of urbanization to rainfall and flooding. Overall, we find that the probability of such extreme flood events across the studied basins increased on average by about 21 times in the period 25-30 August 2017 because of urbanization. The effect of urbanization on storm-induced extreme precipitation and flooding should be more explicitly included in global climate models, and this study highlights its importance when assessing the future risk of such extreme events in highly urbanized coastal areas.