Sources of China’s Fossil Energy-Use Change
Sources of China’s Fossil Energy-Use Change
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DOI：
10.3390/en12040699
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发表时间：
2019-02
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Yawen Han;S. Kagawa;Fumiya Nagashima;K. Nansai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yawen Han;S. Kagawa;Fumiya Nagashima;K. Nansai
节能减排和能源结构低碳化技术改进是中国应对全球变暖的重要途径。因此，我们试图找出中国经济开始放缓的2007 - 2012年间中国能源消费变化的技术因素。本文提出了一种基于混合多区域投入产出（MRIO）模型的精细化结构分解分析方法。技术因素表现为能量投入水平效应、能量构成效应和非能量投入效应。研究发现，能源水平效应是能源减少的主要驱动力，节约了1.05亿吨标准煤当量的能源，而5.2亿吨标准煤当量被能源构成效应和非能源投入效应抵消。行业分析表明，电力、化工、冶金等行业的能源投入水平、能源构成和非能源投入效应显著。此外，还研究了与这三种影响有关的各省部门对能源使用变化的贡献。根据这些结果，我们提出了进一步节能的政策建议，以便通过确定的更高优先级贡献者的技术改进实现中国的能源目标。
Technology improvement related to energy conservation and energy mix low-carbonization is a critical approach for tackling global warming in China. Therefore, we attempt to identify the technology factors of China’s energy consumption change between 2007 and 2012, when China’s economy started slowing. This study proposes a new refined structural decomposition analysis (SDA) based on a hybrid multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model. The technology factors are expressed through the energy input level effect, energy composition effect, and non-energy input effect. We find that the energy level effect was the primary driver for energy reduction, saving 1205 million tonnes of standard coal equivalent (Mtce) of energy, while 520 Mtce was offset by energy composition and non-energy input effects. The sector analysis shows that the energy input level, energy composition, and non-energy input effects of electricity, the chemical industry, and metallurgy are noteworthy. In addition, the sector contribution to energy-use change, by province, related to the three effects, is also studied. From these results, we propose policy suggestions for further energy saving, in order to achieve China’s energy target through technology improvements by the higher priority contributors identified.