Using model-based evidence in the governance of pandemics
Using model-based evidence in the governance of pandemics
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-9566.2012.01540.x
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发表时间：
2013-02-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Mansnerus, Erika
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mansnerus, Erika
大流行病防范规划依赖于将流行病学推断扩展到直接观察范围之外的技术。数学建模和模拟技术被用来预测疾病爆发的过程，或在大流行前的准备规划中测试各种缓解战略。这反映了对可量化对象的依赖日益增加，并通过制定数值评估方法建立了监管和管理做法。这一过程已被描述在techne方面;技术的出现和治理背景下的计算实践。本文开发了一个叙事框架，研究如何使用建模方法在大流行暴发的治理，通过分析大流行前的建模实践和基于模型的证据，在欧洲疾病控制中心的大流行风险评估。它探讨了如何建模方法形成技术，通过它的努力，治理组织。最后，通过研究建模方法如何适应不确定性，对建模方法的局限性进行了批判性反思。
Pandemic preparedness planning relies on techniques to extend epidemiological inference beyond the bounds of direct observation. Mathematical modelling and simulation techniques are used to predict the course of an outbreak or test various mitigation strategies in pre-pandemic preparedness planning. This reflects an increasing reliance on quantifiable objects and establishing regulatory and governing practices by developing numerical assessment methods. This process has been described in terms of techne; the emergence of technologies and practices of calculation in the context of governance. This article develops a narrative framework to study how modelling methods are used in the governance of pandemic outbreaks by analysing both pre-pandemic modelling practices and model-based evidence used in pandemic risk assessment at the European Disease Control Centre. It examines how the modelling methods form techne through which the efforts of governance are organised. It concludes with a critical reflection on the limits of modelling methods by studying how they accommodate uncertainties.