The Feedback of Cold Wakes on Tropical Cyclones
The Feedback of Cold Wakes on Tropical Cyclones
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DOI：
10.1029/2020gl091676
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发表时间：
2021-04
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
K. Karnauskas;Lei Zhang;K. Emanuel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Karnauskas;Lei Zhang;K. Emanuel
热带气旋（TC）通过垂直混合和其他过程引起海表温度负异常。这种冷尾流可以覆盖相当大的区域，并持续一个月或更长时间。长期以来，人们一直假设，强烈TC留下的冷尾流减少了随后TC发展的可能性。在这里，我们结合联合收割机卫星观测，全球大气模式，和高分辨率的TC降尺度模式来检验这一假设，并检查冷尾流对后续TC的路径和强度的反馈。总的来说，冷尾流降低了弱到中度事件的频率，但增加了非常强烈事件的发生率。TC响应存在很大的空间异质性，例如响应冷尾流的轨迹密度向南移动，类似于佛罗伦萨（2018）产生的轨迹。冷尾流对于TC建模和预测、解释历史记录和理解气候变化中的反馈可能很重要。
Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause negative sea surface temperature anomalies by vertical mixing and other processes. Such cold wakes can cover substantial areas and persist for a month or longer. It has long been hypothesized that cold wakes left behind by intense TCs reduce the likelihood of subsequent TC development. Here, we combine satellite observations, a global atmospheric model, and a high‐resolution TC downscaling model to test this hypothesis and examine the feedback of cold wakes on subsequent TC tracks and intensities. Overall, cold wakes reduce the frequency of weak to moderate events but increase the incidence of very intense events. There is large spatial heterogeneity in the TC response, such as a southward shift of track density in response to cold wakes similar to that generated by Florence (2018). Cold wakes may be important for modeling and forecasting TCs, interpreting historical records and understanding feedbacks in a changing climate.