When Credit Bites Back
When Credit Bites Back
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DOI：
10.1111/jmcb.12069
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发表时间：
2013-12-01
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Taylor, Alan M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jorda, Oscar;Schularick, Moritz;Taylor, Alan M.
我们使用14个发达国家1870年至2008年的数据，记录了现代商业周期的两个关键事实：相对于典型的衰退，金融危机衰退的代价更高，信贷密集型扩张之后往往会出现更严重的衰退(无论是在金融危机中还是在其他情况下)和较慢的复苏。我们使用当地的预测方法，以一系列广泛的宏观经济调控为条件，研究过去的信贷积累如何影响关键的宏观经济变量，如产出、投资、贷款、利率和通胀。我们发现的事实支持了金融因素在现代商业周期中发挥重要作用的观点。
Using data on 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008 we document two key facts of the modern business cycle: relative to typical recessions, financial crisis recessions are costlier, and more credit-intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions (in financial crises or otherwise) and slower recoveries. We use local projection methods to condition on a broad set of macro-economic controls to study how past credit accumulation impacts key macro-economic variables such as output, investment, lending, interest rates, and inflation. The facts that we uncover lend support to the idea that financial factors play an important role in the modern business cycle.