Cross-Comparison of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Across Large River Basins in Europe, Africa and Asia
Cross-Comparison of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Across Large River Basins in Europe, Africa and Asia
复制标题
欧洲、非洲和亚洲大流域气候变化适应战略的交叉比较
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Kabat
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
V. Krysanova;C. Dickens;J. Timmerman;C. Varela;Maja Schlüter;K. Roest;P. Huntjens;F. Jaspers;H. Buiteveld;Edinson Moreno;Javier Pedraza Carrera;R. Slámová;M. Martínková;I. Blanco;P. Esteve;K. Pringle;C. Pahl‐Wostl;P. Kabat
对各区域的气候变化适应战略进行了交叉比较，将六个大河流域作为案例研究地区。易北河、瓜迪亚纳河和莱茵河三个流域位于欧洲，尼罗河赤道湖区和橙子流域位于非洲，阿姆河流域位于中亚。评价主要是根据决策者和河流流域水管理专家的意见进行的。对适应战略的评估考虑了以下问题：预期的气候变化、预期的气候变化影响、制定适应战略的驱动因素、适应的障碍、一系列水管理措施的执行情况以及适应战略的执行情况。在可能的情况下，对答复进行了分析和交叉比较，并对答复进行了评级。根据专家的意见，所有六个区域都认识到气候变化正在发生。预计气候变化对各流域的影响各不相同，但预计所有流域的年供水量将减少，干旱的频率和强度将增加（洪水的程度较轻）。根据这些答复，制定适应战略的两个最重要的驱动因素是：与气候有关的灾害以及国家和国际政策。答复者指出了适应气候变化的下列最重要障碍：气候预测的空间和时间不确定性、缺乏足够的资金以及缺乏横向合作。评价的水资源管理措施在易北河和莱茵河流域处于相对较高的水平，其次是橙子和瓜迪亚纳。阿姆河流域较低，NEL地区最低，那里的许多措施仅处于规划阶段。关于适应战略的执行水平，可以得出结论，所有流域都已开始适应气候变化，但进展相当缓慢。
A cross-comparison of climate change adaptation strategies across regions was performed, considering six large river basins as case study areas. Three of the basins, namely the Elbe, Guadiana, and Rhine, are located in Europe, the Nile Equatorial Lakes region and the Orange basin are in Africa, and the Amudarya basin is in Central Asia. The evaluation was based mainly on the opinions of policy makers and water management experts in the river basins. The adaptation strategies were evaluated considering the following issues: expected climate change, expected climate change impacts, drivers for development of adaptation strategy, barriers for adaptation, state of the implementation of a range of water management measures, and status of adaptation strategy implementation. The analysis of responses and cross-comparison were performed with rating the responses where possible. According to the expert opinions, there is an understanding in all six regions that climate change is happening. Different climate change impacts are expected in the basins, whereas decreasing annual water availability, and increasing frequency and intensity of droughts (and to a lesser extent floods) are expected in all of them. According to the responses, the two most important drivers for development of adaptation strategy are: climate-related disasters, and national and international policies. The following most important barriers for adaptation to climate change were identified by responders: spatial and temporal uncertainties in climate projections, lack of adequate financial resources, and lack of horizontal cooperation. The evaluated water resources management measures are on a relatively high level in the Elbe and Rhine basins, followed by the Orange and Guadiana. It is lower in the Amudarya basin, and the lowest in the NEL region, where many measures are only at the planning stage. Regarding the level of adaptation strategy implementation, it can be concluded that the adaptation to climate change has started in all basins, but progresses rather slowly.