Acute Fatal Effects of Short-Lasting Extreme Temperatures in Stockholm, Sweden Evidence Across a Century of Change
Acute Fatal Effects of Short-Lasting Extreme Temperatures in Stockholm, Sweden Evidence Across a Century of Change
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DOI：
10.1097/01.ede.0000434530.62353.0b
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发表时间：
2013-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Rocklov, Joacim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Astrom, Daniel Oudin;Forsberg, Bertil;Rocklov, Joacim
背景：气候变化预计将增加极端天气事件的频率。极端炎热和寒冷天气的短期影响及其对死亡率的影响以及整个20世纪的流行病和人口变化都已得到充分记录。我们调查是否敏感性发作的极端热和寒冷已经改变了在斯德哥尔摩，瑞典，从20世纪初到present.Methods：我们收集了每日死亡率和温度数据为1901年至2009年期间为现今的斯德哥尔摩县，瑞典。极端高温定义为平均温度的2天移动平均值高于第98百分位数的天数;极端寒冷定义为26天移动平均值低于第2百分位数的天数。极端热/冷温度和全因死亡率之间的关系，分层的十年，性别和年龄，通过时间序列建模，调整时间trends.Results：总的每日死亡率较高，在所有几十年的极端高温，随着时间的推移，在相对风险与极端高温，在过去的三十年趋于平稳的下降趋势。在整个期间，极端寒冷期间死亡的相对风险更高，几十年来的模式更加分散。与极端高温不同的是，随着时间的推移，极端低温的死亡率并没有下降。结论：虽然极端高温事件中死亡率的相对风险似乎已经下降，但此类事件仍然对公众健康构成威胁。
Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events. Short-term effects of extreme hot and cold weather and their effects on mortality have been thoroughly documented, as have epidemiologic and demographic changes throughout the 20th century. We investigated whether sensitivity to episodes of extreme heat and cold has changed in Stockholm, Sweden, from the beginning of the 20th century until the present.Methods: We collected daily mortality and temperature data for the period 1901-2009 for present-day Stockholm County, Sweden. Heat extremes were defined as days for which the 2-day moving average of mean temperature was above the 98th percentile; cold extremes were defined as days for which the 26-day moving average was below the 2nd percentile. The relationship between extreme hot/cold temperatures and all-cause mortality, stratified by decade, sex, and age, was investigated through time series modeling, adjusting for time trends.Results: Total daily mortality was higher during heat extremes in all decades, with a declining trend over time in the relative risk associated with heat extremes, leveling off during the last three decades. The relative risk of mortality was higher during cold extremes for the entire period, with a more dispersed pattern across decades. Unlike for heat extremes, there was no decline in the mortality with cold extremes over time.Conclusions: Although the relative risk of mortality during extreme temperature events appears to have fallen, such events still pose a threat to public health.