Sovereign Debt Relief and its Aftermath
Sovereign Debt Relief and its Aftermath
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主权债务减免及其后果
DOI：
10.1111/jeea.12166
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Christoph Trebesch
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Carmen M. Reinhart;Christoph Trebesch
本文从长远的角度研究主权债务减免问题。我们通过两个不同的样本量化了通过违约和重组获得的缓解：1920-1939年，重点关注第一次世界大战后发达经济体官方(政府对政府)债务的违约；1978-2010年，重点关注新兴市场与私人外部债权人的债务危机。债务减免在两个时代都很可观，20世纪30年代平均为GDP的21%，最近几十年为GDP的16%。然后，我们分析了债务减免的后果，并围绕1934年的同步战争债务违约和20世纪80/90年代的贝克和布雷迪倡议进行了差异分析。债务国的经济格局在债务减免行动后显著改善，但前提是这些行动涉及债务注销。更温和的债务减免形式，如延长期限和降低利率，通常不会伴随更高的经济增长或改善的信用评级。
This paper studies sovereign debt relief in a long-term perspective. We quantify the relief achieved through default and restructuring in two distinct samples: 1920-1939, focusing on the defaults on official (government to government) debt in advanced economies after World War I; and 1978-2010, focusing on emerging market debt crises with private external creditors. Debt relief was substantial in both eras, averaging 21% of GDP in the 1930s and 16% of GDP in recent decades. We then analyze the aftermath of debt relief and conduct a difference-in-differences analysis around the synchronous war debt defaults of 1934 and the Baker and Brady initiatives of the 1980s/1990s. The economic landscape of debtor countries improves significantly after debt relief operations, but only if these involve debt write-offs. Softer forms of debt relief, such as maturity extensions and interest rate reductions, are not generally followed by higher economic growth or improved credit ratings.