Heterogeneity Within and Across Households in Hurricane Evacuation Response
Heterogeneity Within and Across Households in Hurricane Evacuation Response
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s11067-017-9339-0
复制
发表时间：
2017-06-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Gladwin, Hugh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dixon, David S.;Mozumder, Pallab;Gladwin, Hugh
一项对休斯顿地区家庭的调查显示，2008年飓风艾克的反应与家庭本身一样多样化。回顾疏散文献表明，这仍然是一个基本问题。在我们的分析中，家庭属性和疏散动机之间没有明显的相关性，除非受访者被组织成基于家庭属性和调查受访者所述的关注的亚群。这些亚群相互重叠，因此大多数住户属于多个类别，这表明住户之间也存在异质性。为了解决家庭内部的异质性，信息内容度量（信息熵）被认为是问题显着性的代理。集中注意对调查问题的最突出的答复，就有可能分离出在决定撤离时重要的一些因素，以及这些因素最重要的住户的特征。最关心的受访者的最突出的问题的回归分析通知与调查数据填充的基于代理的模型的行为规则的创建。风险规避行为规则的相对强度通过蒙特卡洛模拟调整，使用每个家庭的实际疏散时间作为适应度。
A survey of Houston-area households reveals responses to Hurricane Ike in 2008 were as diverse as the households themselves. Review of evacuation literature shows this remains a fundamental problem. In our analysis no clear correlations between household attributes and evacuation motivators emerge unless the respondents are organized into subpopulations based on household attributes and the stated concerns of survey respondents. These subpopulations overlap so that most households fall within multiple classifications, evidence that heterogeneity across households is also present within them. To address heterogeneity within households, an information content metric (information entropy) is considered a proxy for issue saliency. Focusing on the most salient responses to survey questions makes it possible to isolate some of the factors important in the decision to evacuate and the characteristics of the households for which those factors are most important. Regression analysis of the most salient issues of the most concerned respondents informs the creation of behavioral rules for an agent-based model populated with the survey data. The relative strengths of the risk-averting behavior rules are tuned through Monte Carlo simulations using the actual evacuation time of each household as the fitness metric.