Backward Simulation Method in Qualitative Simulation
Backward Simulation Method in Qualitative Simulation
复制标题
定性仿真中的逆向仿真方法
DOI：
10.1541/ieejeiss1987.115.11_1369
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发表时间：
1995
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
N. Komoda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Hata;T. Ohkawa;N. Komoda
对于组织的战略规划，确定每项政策对组织改进的有效性是重要的。通过一个反映多个因素间因果关系的结构模型，可以有效地把握政策引起的目标行为。本文提出了一种定性模拟方法，它可以设想由结构模型模拟的系统的行为，作为战略规划的计算机支持。然而，在定性模拟方法中，需要通过试验和错误进行多次模拟实验，这些模拟实验对应于条件或政策的变化，以找出优选的策略。本文提出了一种从目标的行为中反向推导策略的方法，称为反向模拟。该方法的目的是支持战略规划，通过提出解决问题的政策，用户有效地没有尝试和错误。通过对某服装专卖店经营战略规划的实验，验证了该方法的有效性。
For strategy planning in organizations, ascertaining the effectiveness of each policy for improvement of orga nizations is important. It is useful to grasp target behavior caused from a policy through a, structural model representing casual relations among several factors. We have proposed a qualitative simulation method, which can envisage behabiors of a system modeled by the structural model as a computer support of strategy planning. In the qualitative simulation method, however, several numbers of simulation experiments by trial and error, which correspond to changes of conditions or policies, are required to find out a preferable strategy. In this paper, a method which backwardly derives policies from the behavior of the target, named backward simulation, is considered. This method aims at support of strategy planning, by presenting policies for problem soloving to the user efficiently without trial and error. Through the experiment of planning of management strategy for a fashion specialty store using the method, the effectiveness of the method is clarified.