Estimated annual and lifetime labor productivity in the United States, 2016: implications for economic evaluations
Estimated annual and lifetime labor productivity in the United States, 2016: implications for economic evaluations
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DOI：
10.1080/13696998.2018.1542520
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发表时间：
2019-06-03
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Pike, Jamison
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Grosse, Scott D.;Krueger, Kurt, V;Pike, Jamison
背景：基于人力资本的终生生产力估算经常用于疾病成本 (COI) 分析，但较少用于成本效益分析 (CEA)。美国之前的估计假设劳动生产率和实际收入每年增长 1%。 目标：本研究利用美国社区调查、美国时间利用调查和当前人口调查的数据，以及对实际收入增长的不同假设，对 2016 年的年生产率和终生生产率进行估计。方法：估计市场生产率（根据雇主支付的福利调整后的个人劳动年总收入）和花在家庭、护理和志愿服务上的非市场时间的估算值的总和。使用年生产率估计、生命表、贴现率和对未来收入增长率的假设，计算了合成队列中不同年龄段的终生生产率现值。结果：2016 年美国成年人的平均年生产率为 57,324 美元，其中市场生产率为 36,935 美元，非市场生产率为 20,389 美元。如果收入每年增长 1%，则使用 3% 的贴现率，出生时的终生生产率约为 150 万美元；如果未来收入平均每年增长 0.5%，则出生时的终生生产率约为 150 万美元。结论：美国新的成本效益指南建议将可避免的生产率损失纳入社会视角的健康干预 CEA。然而，估计值会有所不同，具体取决于分析师选择估计总生产率还是仅估计市场生产率，以及对未来生产率和收益增长的假设。
Background: Human-capital based lifetime productivity estimates are frequently used in cost-of-illness (COI) analyses and, less commonly, in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). Previous US estimates assumed that labor productivity and real earnings both grow by 1% per year.Objectives: This study presents estimates of annual and lifetime productivity for 2016 using data from the American Community Survey, the American Time Use Survey, and the Current Population Survey, and with varying assumptions about real earnings growth.Methods: The sum of market productivity (gross annual personal labor earnings adjusted for employer-paid benefits) and the imputed value of non-market time spent in household, caring, and volunteer services was estimated. The present value of lifetime productivity at various ages was calculated for synthetic cohorts using annual productivity estimates, life tables, discount rates, and assumptions about future earnings growth rates.Results: Mean annual productivity was $57,324 for US adults in 2016, including $36,935 in market and $20,389 in non-market productivity. Lifetime productivity at birth, using a 3% discount rate, is roughly $1.5 million if earnings grow by 1% per year and $1.2 million if future earnings growth averages 0.5% per year.Conclusions: Inclusion of avoidable productivity losses in societal-perspective CEAs of health interventions is recommended in new US cost-effectiveness guidelines. However, estimates vary depending on whether analysts choose to estimate total productivity or just market productivity, and on assumptions made about growth in future productivity and earnings.