Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale: A Multicountry Study.
Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale: A Multicountry Study.
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DOI：
10.1097/ee9.0000000000000169
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发表时间：
2021-10
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Gasparrini A
中科院分区：
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作者：
Tobías A;Hashizume M;Honda Y;Sera F;Ng CFS;Kim Y;Roye D;Chung Y;Dang TN;Kim H;Lee W;Íñiguez C;Vicedo-Cabrera A;Abrutzky R;Guo Y;Tong S;Coelho MSZS;Saldiva PHN;Lavigne E;Correa PM;Ortega NV;Kan H;Osorio S;Kyselý J;Urban A;Orru H;Indermitte E;Jaakkola JJK;Ryti NRI;Pascal M;Huber V;Schneider A;Katsouyanni K;Analitis A;Entezari A;Mayvaneh F;Goodman P;Zeka A;Michelozzi P;de'Donato F;Alahmad B;Diaz MH;De la Cruz Valencia C;Overcenco A;Houthuijs D;Ameling C;Rao S;Di Ruscio F;Carrasco G;Seposo X;Nunes B;Madureira J;Holobaca IH;Scovronick N;Acquaotta F;Forsberg B;Åström C;Ragettli MS;Guo YL;Chen BY;Li S;Colistro V;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J;Dung DV;Armstrong B;Gasparrini A
补充数字内容可在正文中找到。最低死亡温度(MMT)是评估温度-死亡相关性的重要指标，表明其对当地气候的长期适应。关于MMT的地理变异性的证据在全球范围内是有限的。我们收集了43个国家不同气候下的658个社区的数据。我们使用泊松回归和分布滞后非线性模型来估计温度和死亡率之间的关系，从而得出每个社区的MMT。我们使用混合效应荟萃分析研究了不同气候区域MMT的变化，并探讨了这种变化与气候和社会经济指标的关系。多金属硫化物的地理分布因国家不同而有很大差异，在14.2至31.1℃之间，纬度下降。在气候带，最高气温从高山(13.0℃)增加到大陆(19.3℃)、温带(21.7℃)、干旱(24.5℃)和热带(26.5℃)。与MMT对应的MMT百分位数(MMTP)由温带(79.5)降至大陆(75.4)、干旱(68.0)、热带(58.5)、高山(41.4)。社区年平均气温上升1℃时，MMT增加0.8℃，SD上升1℃时，MMT增加1℃。而MMTP下降0.3个百分位点，社区年平均气温上升1摄氏度，SD上升1摄氏度，下降1.3。MMT和MMTP的地理分布主要是由年平均温度驱动的，这似乎是人口总体适应情况的一个有价值的指标。我们的结果表明，种群已经适应了平均温度，尽管仍有更大的适应空间。
Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text. Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators. The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 °C decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 °C) to continental (19.3 °C), temperate (21.7 °C), arid (24.5 °C), and tropical (26.5 °C). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 °C for a 1 °C rise in a community’s annual mean temperature, and by 1 °C for a 1 °C rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 °C rise in a community’s annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 °C rise in its SD. The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation.