Assessing the importance of demographic risk factors across two waves of SARS-CoV-2 using fine-scale case data
Assessing the importance of demographic risk factors across two waves of SARS-CoV-2 using fine-scale case data
复制标题
使用精细病例数据评估两波 SARS-CoV-2 中人口统计风险因素的重要性
DOI：
10.1101/2022.08.03.22278013
复制
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Wood A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wood A
对于COVID-19等传染病的长期控制，识别最有可能被感染的个体以及人口特征差异在观察到的感染模式中所起的作用至关重要。随着大规模监测的结束，早期的测试数据对于详细研究感染的风险因素是非常宝贵的。在这些时期观察到的时间变化可能会告诉我们，从长远来看，这种模式将有多稳定。为此，我们分析了2021年苏格兰各地COVID-19病例的分布，其中病例的位置（500- 1，000名居民的人口普查区）和报告日期是已知的。我们考虑了超过450，000个单独记录的病例，在由不同血统引发的两次感染浪潮中：B.1.1.529（“Omicron”）和B.1.617.2（“Delta”）。我们使用随机森林，通过地理，人口统计，测试和疫苗接种的措施。我们发现，只有当考虑多个解释变量时，才能充分解释分布，这意味着病例异质性来自个体行为，免疫力和测试频率的组合。尽管在病毒谱系、一年中的时间和干预措施方面存在差异，但我们发现两波之间的风险因素大致一致。观察到的许多较小的差异可以合理地解释为控制措施的变化。
For the long term control of an infectious disease such as COVID-19, it is crucial to identify the most likely individuals to become infected and the role that differences in demographic characteristics play in the observed patterns of infection. As high-volume surveillance winds down, testing data from earlier periods are invaluable for studying risk factors for infection in detail. Observed changes in time during these periods may then inform how stable the pattern will be in the long term. To this end we analyse the distribution of cases of COVID-19 across Scotland in 2021, where the location (census areas of order 500–1,000 residents) and reporting date of cases are known. We consider over 450,000 individually recorded cases, in two infection waves triggered by different lineages: B.1.1.529 (“Omicron”) and B.1.617.2 (“Delta”). We use random forests, informed by measures of geography, demography, testing and vaccination. We show that the distributions are only adequately explained when considering multiple explanatory variables, implying that case heterogeneity arose from a combination of individual behaviour, immunity, and testing frequency. Despite differences in virus lineage, time of year, and interventions in place, we find the risk factors remained broadly consistent between the two waves. Many of the observed smaller differences could be reasonably explained by changes in control measures.
登录
查看更多内容
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa2119451
发表时间：
2022-04-21
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
Andrews N;Stowe J;Kirsebom F;Toffa S;Rickeard T;Gallagher E;Gower C;Kall M;Groves N;O'Connell AM;Simons D;Blomquist PB;Zaidi A;Nash S;Iwani Binti Abdul Aziz N;Thelwall S;Dabrera G;Myers R;Amirthalingam G;Gharbia S;Barrett JC;Elson R;Ladhani SN;Ferguson N;Zambon M;Campbell CNJ;Brown K;Hopkins S;Chand M;Ramsay M;Lopez Bernal J
通讯作者：
Lopez Bernal J
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
通讯作者：
--
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
McMillen, Tracy;Jani, Krupa;Robilotti, Elizabeth, V;Kamboj, Mini;Babady, N. Esther
通讯作者：
Babady, N. Esther
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
通讯作者：
--
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Simpson, Colin R;Robertson, Chris;Sheikh, Aziz
通讯作者：
Sheikh, Aziz