The Child is Father Of the Man: Implications for the Demographic Transition
The Child is Father Of the Man: Implications for the Demographic Transition
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-0297.2012.02523.x
复制
发表时间：
2013-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Licandro, Omar
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
de la Croix, David;Licandro, Omar
我们提出了一种新的人口转变理论，基于来自自然科学的证据，即儿童时期的身体发展对成年人的预期寿命有积极影响。这一理论体现在一个连续时间的OLG框架中，在该框架中，生育率、寿命和教育都是个人决策的结果。我们的结论是，物质发展的持续改善是当今发达国家观察到的人口转变的基础，可能是解释从马尔萨斯向现代缓慢转变的一个重要因素。拟议模式的动态再现了人口转型的主要特征，包括儿童身体发育的持续改善、预期寿命的永久延长、人口增长和生育率的驼峰形演变以及中等教育水平的较晚提高。
We propose a new theory of the demographic transition based on the evidence from natural sciences that physical development during childhood affects adult life expectancy positively. This theory is embodied in a continuous time OLG framework where fertility, longevity and education all result from individual decisions. We conclude that a sustained improvement in physical development is at the basis of the observed demographic transition in today's developed countries and may be an important factor in explaining the slow transition from the Malthusian towards the Modern era. The dynamics of the proposed model reproduce the key features of the demographic transition, including sustained improvements in child physical development, permanent increase in life expectancy, a hump-shaped evolution of both population growth and fertility and late increases in secondary educational attainments.