On the role of "transients" (biasing transitional effects) for the prognostic analysis of the AIDS epidemic.
On the role of "transients" (biasing transitional effects) for the prognostic analysis of the AIDS epidemic.
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关于“瞬态”（偏差过渡效应）在艾滋病流行的预后分析中的作用。
DOI：
10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a114768
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发表时间：
1987
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
M. Koch
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. J. Gonzalez;M. Koch
在一场普通的马拉松比赛中，所有的选手都同时起跑，但是跑得快的选手会提前结束，跑得慢的选手会晚一些。假设今年的纽约市马拉松是以一种完全不同的方式进行的：跑步者以小组开始，并且开始小组的规模一直在增加。在这种奇怪的比赛中，起步晚的跑得快的人会超过起步早的跑得慢的人。第一个完成的参与者将是最早开始的参与者中最快的。之后，人们会观察到到达群体的异常增长率，这是由于早期启动速度较慢的人和起步较晚的非常快的跑步者的贡献。这种现象将持续一段时间，直到所有类型的跑步者都被代表-
In a normal marathon, all runners start simultaneously, but quick runners finish early and less quick runners arrive later. Assume that this year's New York City Marathon were carried out in a radically different fashion: runners start in groups and the sizes of the starting groups increase all the time. In this curious race, quick runners who started late would pass less quick runners who started earlier. The first participants to finish would be the quickest among the early starters. Afterward, one would observe an abnormal rate of growth of the arriving groups due to the contribution by both less quick early starters and very quick runners who started somewhat later. This phenomenon would continue for a while until all types of runners are rep-