The wood pellet market in Austria: A structural market model analysis
The wood pellet market in Austria: A structural market model analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.039
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
C. Kristöfel;C. Strasser;E. Schmid;Ulrich B. Morawetz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Kristöfel;C. Strasser;E. Schmid;Ulrich B. Morawetz
欧盟生物能源政策和油价上涨导致住宅供暖安装的颗粒锅炉大幅增加。因此，欧洲对木屑颗粒的需求增长速度比供应量更快，更稳定，导致近年来市场价格上涨。本文对奥地利住宅供暖行业的木屑颗粒需求和供应进行了计量经济学分析，这是住宅颗粒最具活力的市场之一。2000年至2014年的年度和月度时间序列数据用于两阶段最小二乘（2SLS）回归，以估计木屑颗粒的供需弹性。在所有模型规格中，发现颗粒需求是无弹性的（从-0.66到-0.76），颗粒供应单位弹性（从1.03到1.18）。因此，消费者很容易受到供应冲击造成的价格变化的影响。支持颗粒锅炉投资的政策将改变对木屑颗粒的需求，并可能导致消费者的价格上涨。
EU bioenergy policies and oil price hikes have resulted in a significant increase of installed pellet boilers for residential heating. Hence, European demand for wood pellets has been growing faster and more steadily than supply leading to rising market prices in recent years. This article presents an econometric analysis of demand and supply of wood pellets in the residential heating sector in Austria, one of the most dynamic markets for residential pellets. Annual and monthly time series data between 2000 and 2014 are used in a two-stage least-squares (2SLS) regression to estimate supply and demand elasticities of wood pellets. In all model specifications, pellets demand is found to be inelastic (from −0.66 to −0.76) and pellets supply unit-elastic (from 1.03 to 1.18). Thus, consumers are highly exposed to price changes resulting from supply shocks. Policies which support investments in pellet boilers will shift the demand of wood pellets and likely leading to higher prices for consumers.