The Brazilian Rise and the Elusive South American Balance
The Brazilian Rise and the Elusive South American Balance
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巴西的崛起与难以捉摸的南美平衡
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
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通讯作者：
Luis L. Schenoni
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Luis L. Schenoni
在过去的50年里，巴西在南美的电力份额已经从该地区整体材料能力的三分之一增加到一半。巴西的邻国不可能没有注意到地区权力结构如此重大的变化。本文解决了与南美单极（1985-2014）有关的主要问题：为什么该地区的大多数国家没有实施任何针对巴西的一贯平衡或随波逐流战略？根据新古典现实主义的观点，这篇文章提出，某些国内变量——政府的不稳定、有限的政党制度制度化和强大的总统——已经转移了政治精英和外交政策主管对巴西崛起所带来的挑战的注意力。脆集定性比较分析用于检验这一假设和其他替代解释的区域不平衡。
Within the last 50 years, the Brazilian share of South American power has increased from one-third to one-half of the overall material capabilities in the region. Such a significant change in the regional power structure cannot have gone unnoticed by Brazil’s neighbors. The article addresses the main question related to South American unipolarity (1985-2014): Why have most countries in the region not implemented any consistent balancing or bandwagoning strategies vis-a-vis Brazil? Drawing on neoclassical realism, the article proposes that certain domestic variables – government instability, limited party-system institutionalization, and powerful presidents – have diverted the attention of political elites and foreign policy executives from the challenges generated by a rising Brazil. Crisp-set qualitative comparative analysis is used to test this hypothesis and other alternative explanations for the regional imbalance.