Land use and land cover change in the Colombian Andes: dynamics and future scenarios
Land use and land cover change in the Colombian Andes: dynamics and future scenarios
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DOI：
10.1080/1747423x.2011.650228
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Alumbreros, Javier Retana
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eraso, Nelly Rodriguez;Armenteras-Pascual, Dolors;Alumbreros, Javier Retana
土地利用和土地覆盖变化（LUCC）被认为是生态系统中生物多样性丧失的最相关驱动因素之一。通过对卫星图像的分析，本文对1985 - 2008年哥伦比亚安第斯山脉的土地利用/覆被变化进行了量化。分析了四个子变化模型：森林砍伐，作物集约化，转换为牧场，放弃。我们将这些变化与人口，社会经济和非生物变量和景观变化的一些吸引因素相关联，最后我们考虑了三种变化情景：参考，增加牧场和作物集约化。土地利用/覆被变化的动态主要是由作物、牧草和次生植被之间的系统转换所决定的。在所有子模型中，牧场转换在准确率（84%）方面具有重要贡献，解释该地区土地覆盖变化的最相关变量是海拔，土壤类型以及与道路，城市和牧场的距离。我们的模拟表明，牧场转换方案将对自然生态系统产生最大的影响，到2050年可能导致28-30%的覆盖面积损失。结果表明，这些变化热点目前仍处于较好的保护状态，森林面积较大。
Land use and land cover changes (LUCC) are recognized as one of the most relevant drivers of biodiversity loss in ecosystems. Through the analysis of satellite images, this article quantifies the LUCC that occurred between 1985 and 2008 in the Colombian Andes. Four submodels of changes were analyzed: deforestation, crop intensification, conversion to pastures, and abandonment. We associated these changes with demographic, socioeconomic, and abiotic variables and to some attractors of landscape change, and finally we have considered three scenarios of change: reference, increase in pasture, and crop intensification. The dynamics of LUCC were dominated by systematic transitions between crops, pastures, and secondary vegetation. Of all the submodels, pasture conversion has an important contribution in terms of accuracy rate (84%), and the most relevant variables for explaining land cover changes in the region were elevation, soil type, and distance to roads, cities, and pastures. Our simulations suggest that the pasture conversion scenario would have the biggest impact in natural ecosystems and could cause the loss of 28-30% of the cover area by 2050. The results indicate some that these hotspots of change are currently still under a good conservation state with large extension of forests.