Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges
Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges
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DOI：
10.1016/s0308-521x(02)00043-4
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发表时间：
2002-12-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Hansen, JW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hansen, JW
我们提前几个月预测气候波动的能力的进步表明，只有在特定条件下，才有机会改善农业气候风险的管理。本文概述了有益的预测使用的先决条件;突出了关键问题，方法和挑战，与每一个;并提出了一个渐进的战略。第一个先决条件是，预测信息必须满足真实的和感知的需求。第二，只有通过对预测信息敏感的可行决策选择才能产生效益。第三，效益取决于对与可行决策相关的气候可变性组成部分的预测。第四，适当的预报使用需要有效地沟通相关信息。最后，持续使用需要机构承诺和有利的政策。考虑三个阶段的努力是有益的：探索阶段，以获得理解和评估潜力;试点阶段，以研究人员和目标决策者之间的共同学习为特点;业务阶段，重点是让相关机构参与并为其提供装备。尽管使用和潜在使用的例子以及机构支持的进步令人乐观，但农业对气候预测的使用仍然太新，无法支持对其价值的强有力的概括。(C)2002爱思唯尔科技有限公司版权所有。
Advances in our ability to predict climate fluctuations months in advance suggest opportunity to improve management of climatic risk in agriculture, but only if particular conditions are in place. This paper outlines prerequisites to beneficial forecast use; highlights key issues, approaches and challenges related to each; and suggests an evolutionary strategy. The first prerequisite is that forecast information must address a need that is both real and perceived. Second, benefit arises only through viable decision options that are sensitive to forecast information. Third, benefit depends on prediction of the components of climate variability that are relevant to viable decisions. Fourth, appropriate forecast use requires effective communication of relevant information. Finally, sustained use requires institutional commitment and favorable policies. It is useful to consider three phases of effort: an exploratory phase to gain understanding and assess potential, a pilot phase characterized by co-learning between researchers and target decision makers, and an operational phase focusing on engaging and equipping relevant institutions. Although examples of use and potential use, and advances in institutional support, are cause for optimism, use of climate prediction by agriculture s still too new to support strong generalizations about its value. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.