The American Cancer Society 2035 challenge goal on cancer mortality reduction
The American Cancer Society 2035 challenge goal on cancer mortality reduction
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DOI：
10.3322/caac.21564
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发表时间：
2019-09-01
影响因子：
254.7
通讯作者：
Brawley, Otis W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ma, Jiemin;Jemal, Ahmedin;Brawley, Otis W.
2015年美国癌症协会（ACS）挑战目标的总结评估显示，从1990年到2015年，美国所有癌症的总死亡率下降了26%。最近的研究表明，通过广泛和公平地应用已知的干预措施，美国癌症死亡率仍然可以大大降低。因此，ACS董事会委托ACS研究人员确定到2035年降低癌症死亡率的挑战目标。使用统计模型来估计最近一段时间内美国普通人群和受过大学教育的美国人总体癌症死亡率的平均年下降百分比。然后，将大学毕业生总体癌症死亡率的平均年下降百分比应用于普通人群的死亡率，以预测美国从2020年开始的未来死亡率。如果从2020年到2035年，美国的癌症死亡率以大学毕业生的速度下降，那么2035年美国的死亡率将比2015年下降38.3%，比1990年下降54.4%。基于这些结果，ACS 2035的挑战目标设定为比2015年减少40%。实现这一目标可能导致癌症死亡人数比2020年至2035年减少约130万人，仅2035年就减少122，500人。结果还表明，到2025年降低风险因素的患病率并实现对循证筛查指南的最佳遵守，可能会导致到2035年总体癌症死亡率降低33.5%，实现85%的挑战目标。
A summary evaluation of the 2015 American Cancer Society (ACS) challenge goal showed that overall US mortality from all cancers combined declined 26% over the period from 1990 to 2015. Recent research suggests that US cancer mortality can still be lowered considerably by applying known interventions broadly and equitably. The ACS Board of Directors, therefore, commissioned ACS researchers to determine challenge goals for reductions in cancer mortality by 2035. A statistical model was used to estimate the average annual percent decline in overall cancer death rates among the US general population and among college-educated Americans during the most recent period. Then, the average annual percent decline in the overall cancer death rates of college graduates was applied to the death rates in the general population to project future rates in the United States beginning in 2020. If overall cancer death rates from 2020 through 2035 nationally decline at the pace of those of college graduates, then death rates in 2035 in the United States will drop by 38.3% from the 2015 level and by 54.4% from the 1990 level. On the basis of these results, the ACS 2035 challenge goal was set as a 40% reduction from the 2015 level. Achieving this goal could lead to approximately 1.3 million fewer cancer deaths than would have occurred from 2020 through 2035 and 122,500 fewer cancer deaths in 2035 alone. The results also show that reducing the prevalence of risk factors and achieving optimal adherence to evidence-based screening guidelines by 2025 could lead to a 33.5% reduction in the overall cancer death rate by 2035, attaining 85% of the challenge goal.