The metapopulation dynamics of an infectious disease: Tuberculosis in possums
The metapopulation dynamics of an infectious disease: Tuberculosis in possums
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DOI：
10.1006/tpbi.2001.1553
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发表时间：
2002-02-01
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Heesterbeek, JAP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fulford, GR;Roberts, MG;Heesterbeek, JAP
一个SEI集合种群模型的发展，传染性病原体的传播迁移。该模型描绘了由迁移路线连接的许多斑块上的两个年龄段，这些路线用于宿主动物的成熟。这个模型的一个特点是，基本的繁殖率可以直接计算，使用一个方案，分离地形，人口，和流行病学。给出了单个斑块基本再生数的计算公式，并讨论了它们与系统基本再生比的关系。该模型被应用到空间传播的问题，牛结核病的负鼠种群。时间动态的感染研究了一些通用网络的迁移链接，并计算基本的再生比，其值是没有很大的不同，从一个均匀的模型。三种情况被认为是控制牛结核病负鼠的空间方面被证明是至关重要的疾病管理业务的设计。(C)2002 Elsevier Science（美国）。
An SEI metapopulation model is developed for the spread of an infectious agent by migration. The model portrays two age classes on a number of patches connected by migration routes which are used as host animals mature. A feature of this model is that the basic reproduction ratio may be computed directly, using a scheme that separates topography, demography, and epidemiology. We also provide formulas for individual patch basic reproduction numbers and discuss their connection with the basic reproduction ratio for the system. The model is applied to the problem of spatial spread of bovine tuberculosis in a possum population. The temporal dynamics of infection are investigated for some generic networks of migration links, and the basic reproduction ratio is computed-its value is not greatly different from that for a homogeneous model. Three scenarios are considered for the control of bovine tuberculosis in possums where the spatial aspect is shown to be crucial for the design of disease management operations. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).