Shifting climate zones and expanding tropical and arid climate regions across Kenya (1980-2020)
Shifting climate zones and expanding tropical and arid climate regions across Kenya (1980-2020)
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DOI：
10.1007/s10113-023-02055-w
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发表时间：
2023-06-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Shacham，Enbal
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lawrence，Ted J. J.;Vilbig，Justin M. M.;Shacham，Enbal
人类活动引起的气候变化显著改变了气候带的时空特征，从而驱动农业土地利用和生态系统变化。然而，在区域到地方的范围内，尚待充分处理气候带变化的可探测性以及变化的速度和时间问题。我们绘制并分析了过去四十年来肯尼亚各地温度和降水的变化，并将这些变化与区域尺度上气候带的地理分布和安排的变化联系起来。我们观察到，在40年的时间里，年平均气温上升了大约1 °C。总共有76，346平方公里从较冷的区域转移到较热的区域，而1，298平方公里从较热的区域转移到较冷的区域。热带气候区从91%扩大到93%，超过13，000平方公里从高山和温带地区转移到热带地区。年平均降水量几乎没有趋势，但观察到了很大的空间变化。共有136，129平方公里从湿润区转移到干燥区，23，317平方公里从干燥区转移到湿润区。干旱气候区从72%扩大到81%，从湿润和半湿润到半干旱到干旱区的面积约为50，000平方公里。总的来说，温度和降水区发生了207，557平方公里的变化。随着气候带主要转向更热和更干燥的条件，气候多样性将下降，反过来，生态系统多样性和生态系统对社会的货物和服务将下降。这些变化对全球旱地的影响以及对地球系统周期的影响，也具有更广泛的全球影响。总体而言，这些信息可以更好地为肯尼亚国家气候变化应对战略提供信息，并用于实现联合国可持续发展目标。
Human-induced climate change significantly alters the spatiotemporal characteristics of climate zones, which drives agricultural land use and ecosystem change. However, the detectability of shifting climate zones and the rate and time of the changes has yet to be adequately addressed at the regional-to-local scale. We mapped and analyzed changes to temperature and precipitation across Kenya during the past four decades, and linked those changes to shifts in the geographic distribution and arrangement of climate zones at regional scales. We observed an approximate 1 °C increase in average annual temperature over the 40-year period. A total of 76,346 km2shifted from cooler to hotter zones, while 1298 km2shifted from hotter to cooler zones. Tropical climate regions expanded from 91 to 93%, with over 13,000 km2shifting from alpine and temperate to tropical regions. Average annual precipitation demonstrated little or no trend, but substantial spatial changes were observed. A total of 136,129 km2shifted from wetter to drier zones, while 23,317 km2shifted from drier to wetter zones. Arid climate regions expanded from 72 to 81%, a roughly 50,000 km2shift from humid and semi-humid-to-semi-arid to arid regions. Overall, there was a 207,557 km2shift in temperature and precipitation zones. As the climate zones predominately shift toward hotter and drier conditions, climatic diversity will decline, and in turn, ecosystem diversity and the ecosystem goods and services to society will decline. The changes also have broader global implications in terms of their contribution to global drylands as well as influencing earth system cycles. Overall, such information can better inform the Kenyan National Climate Change Response Strategy and be used to reach the UN Sustainable Development Goals.