Solutions to Japan's Banking Problems: What Might Work and What Definitely Will Fail
Solutions to Japan's Banking Problems: What Might Work and What Definitely Will Fail
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日本银行业问题的解决方案：什么可能有效，什么肯定会失败
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.622864
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Hoshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Kashyap;T. Hoshi
我们研究了日本长期存在的银行问题。通过考察日本过去失败的政策和其他高收入OECD国家成功克服银行危机的政策，我们制定了解决问题的路线图。我们把这些问题归纳为四个基本的问题。首先，如果对银行状况进行适当评估，大多数银行的资本金严重不足。第二，银行目前没有有效地分配信贷，而是将许多贷款发放给了无力偿还的借款人。第三，银行业规模太大（就资产而言），无法获得足够的回报。最后一个问题是，银行缺乏盈利能力，部分原因是它们无法提供高利润率的产品，而这些产品在外国竞争对手中很常见。然后，我们探讨这些意见的影响，该行业的长期运行条件。特别是，当银行业萎缩到可以盈利运营的水平，银行再次获得充足的资本金，不再向赖账的借款人发放绿色贷款时，就可以很自然地界定问题的结束。认识到这一系列条件是该行业的最终均衡是有帮助的，因为它确定了一个成功的政策必须面对的一系列问题。我们对均衡的描述也有助于说明为什么过去的政策未能结束这些问题。然而，来自其他国家的证据表明，这些问题并非不可克服。我们描述了在其他地方使用的成功政策如何适用于日本。我们概述了替代的过渡战略，可以把我们从目前的条件下的均衡。最后，我们通过分析理索纳银行的救助和三菱东京金融集团与UFJ的合并来说明替代方案。
We study the longstanding banking problems in Japan. By examining both the past policies in Japan that have failed, and the successful policies in other high income OECD countries that have overcome banking crises, we develop a roadmap for resolving the problems. We distill the problems into four basic troubles. The first is that most of the banks are severely under-capitalized when their condition is properly evaluated. The second is that the banks are not currently allocating credit efficiently, and instead are directing many loans to borrowers that will not be able to repay them. The third is that the banking sector is too large (in terms of assets) to make adequate returns. The final problem is that the banks' lack of profitability is partly related to their inability to offer the high margin products that are commonplace amongst their foreign competitors. We then explore the implications of these observations for the long-run condition of the industry. In particular, a natural way to define the end of the problems is when the banking sector has shrunk to a level where it can profitably operate and the banks are once again adequately capitalized and no-longer ever-greening loans to deadbeat borrowers. Recognizing this constellation of conditions as the eventual equilibrium for the industry is helpful because it identifies the set of problems that a successful policy must confront. Our description of the equilibrium also helps to show why past policies have failed to end the problems. The evidence from other countries, however, shows that the problems are not insurmountable. We describe how the successful policies used elsewhere could be applied in Japan. We outline alternative transition strategies that could take us from the current conditions to the equilibrium. Finally, we illustrate the alternatives by analyzing the Resona Bank rescue and the Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ merger.