Randomized Controlled Field Trials of Predictive Policing
Randomized Controlled Field Trials of Predictive Policing
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DOI：
10.1080/01621459.2015.1077710
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发表时间：
2015-12-01
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Brantingham, P. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mohler, G. O.;Short, M. B.;Brantingham, P. J.
事实证明，将警察资源集中在稳定的犯罪热点地区可以有效减少犯罪，但警察能够在多大程度上扰乱动态变化的犯罪热点地区尚不清楚。警方必须能够预测动态热点的未来位置以扰乱它们。在这里，我们报告了两项近实时流行病型余震序列 (ETAS) 犯罪预测的随机对照试验的结果，其中一项试验在洛杉矶警察局的三个部门内进行，另一项试验在肯特警察局（英国）的两个部门内进行。我们调查了（i）短期犯罪风险的 ETAS 模型在多大程度上优于专门犯罪分析师制作的热点地图的现有最佳实践，（ii）现场警察可以在资源有限的情况下动态巡逻预测的热点，以及（iii）在现实执法资源限制下通过预测警务算法可以减少犯罪。虽然之前的热点监管实验在整个实验期间固定处理和控制热点，但我们使用新颖的实验设计来允许处理和控制热点在实验过程中动态变化。我们的结果表明，与使用现有犯罪情报和热点测绘实践的专门犯罪分析师相比，ETAS 模型预测的犯罪数量是其 1.4-2.2 倍。使用 ETAS 预测的警察巡逻使犯罪量平均减少 7.4%（作为巡逻时间的函数），而基于分析师预测的巡逻则没有显示出显着效果。根据 ETAS 犯罪预测进行动态警察巡逻可以破坏犯罪机会并真正减少犯罪。
The concentration of police resources in stable crime hotspots has proven effective in reducing crime, but the extent to which police can disrupt dynamically changing crime hotspots is unknown. Police must be able to anticipate the future location of dynamic hotspots to disrupt them. Here we report results of two randomized controlled trials of near real-time epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) crime forecasting, one trial within three divisions of the Los Angeles Police Department and the other trial within two divisions of the Kent Police Department (United Kingdom). We investigate the extent to which (i) ETAS models of short-term crime risk outperform existing best practice of hotspot maps produced by dedicated crime analysts, (ii) police officers in the field can dynamically patrol predicted hotspots given limited resources, and (iii) crime can be reduced by predictive policing algorithms under realistic law enforcement resource constraints. While previous hotspot policing experiments fix treatment and control hotspots throughout the experimental period, we use a novel experimental design to allow treatment and control hotspots to change dynamically over the course of the experiment. Our results show that ETAS models predict 1.4-2.2 times as much crime compared to a dedicated crime analyst using existing criminal intelligence and hotspot mapping practice. Police patrols using ETAS forecasts led to an average 7.4% reduction in crime volume as a function of patrol time, whereas patrols based upon analyst predictions showed no significant effect. Dynamic police patrol in response to ETAS crime forecasts can disrupt opportunities for crime and lead to real crime reductions.