Elliott Waves, Fibonacci and Statistics
Elliott Waves, Fibonacci and Statistics
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艾略特波浪、斐波那契和统计学
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发表时间：
2006
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通讯作者：
R. R. Prechter
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作者：
R. R. Prechter
最近的一篇学术论文（Batchelor和Ramyar，2005）调查了道琼斯工业平均指数中相邻运动（“回撤”）以及被干预运动（“预测”）分开的同向运动的价格和时间比率的频率。从业人员的一些意见可能是建设性的。这项研究是有价值的，在股票市场的价格过滤运动一般不涉及斐波那契倍数无论是价格回撤或预测。它支持了1978年艾略特波浪原理第一版（弗罗斯特和普莱切特）的一个观察：在识别黄金分割率在股市周期的五个向上和三个向下运动中的作用时，人们可能会预期，在任何牛市阶段完成时，随后的修正将是前一次上涨的五分之三，无论是时间还是幅度。这种简单是很少见的。(1978/ 2005年，第133页）
A recent academic paper (Batchelor and Ramyar, 2005) investigated the frequency of price and time ratios attending adjacent movements in the DJIA (“retracements”) as well as same-direction movements separated by an intervening movement (“projections”). Some comments from a practitioner may prove constructive. The study is valuable in demonstrating that price-filtered movements in the stock market do not generally relate by a Fibonacci multiple either to price retracements or to projections. It supports an observation dating from the first edition of Elliott Wave Principle (Frost and Prechter) in 1978: In discerning the working of the Golden Ratio in the five up and three down movement of the stock market cycle, one might anticipate that on completion of any bull phase, the ensuing correction would be three-fifths of the previous rise in both time and amplitude. Such simplicity is seldom seen. (1978/ 2005, p.133)