Four distinct Northeast US heat wave circulation patterns and associated mechanisms, trends, and electric usage
Four distinct Northeast US heat wave circulation patterns and associated mechanisms, trends, and electric usage
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DOI：
10.1038/s41612-021-00186-7
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发表时间：
2021-05-27
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Cohen, Judah
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Agel, Laurie;Barlow, Mathew;Cohen, Judah
美国东北部的热浪通常被认为是一种单一的环流模式，这种高压环流是世界其他地区大多数热浪的典型特征。然而，1980-2018年的k均值聚类分析显示，东北热浪日环流有四种不同的模式，每种模式都有自己的季节性，产热机制（相关的水分，沉降和温度平流）以及对电力需求的影响。月度分析表明，两种模式在夏末出现了显著的正趋势，第三种模式在初夏出现了显著的正趋势，而第四种模式在初夏出现了显著的负趋势。这些结果表明，在一个特定的地理区域的热浪可以启动和维持的各种机制，导致热浪类型与气候变化的不同影响和潜在的联系，模式分析是一个有效的工具来区分这些差异。
Northeastern US heat waves have usually been considered in terms of a single circulation pattern, the high-pressure circulation typical of most heat waves occurring in other parts of the world. However, k-means clustering analysis from 1980-2018 shows there are four distinct patterns of Northeast heat wave daily circulation, each of which has its own seasonality, heat-producing mechanisms (associated moisture, subsidence, and temperature advection), and impact on electricity demand. Monthly analysis shows statistically-significant positive trends occur in late summer for two of the patterns and early summer for a third pattern, while the fourth pattern shows a statistically significant negative trend in early summer. These results demonstrate that heat waves in a particular geographic area can be initiated and maintained by a variety of mechanisms, resulting in heat wave types with distinct impacts and potential links to climate change, and that pattern analysis is an effective tool to distinguish these differences.