Forecasting Japanese inflation with a news-based leading indicator of economic activities
Forecasting Japanese inflation with a news-based leading indicator of economic activities
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DOI：
10.1515/snde-2019-0117
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发表时间：
2020-09
影响因子：
0.8
通讯作者：
Keiichi Goshima;H. Ishijima;M. Shintani;Hiroki Yamamoto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Keiichi Goshima;H. Ishijima;M. Shintani;Hiroki Yamamoto
摘要本文以日本报纸的每日报道为基础，构造经济周期指数，并估计菲利普斯曲线模型，以每日频率预测通货膨胀。我们发现，基于新闻的领先指标，从未来的经济状况的主题构建，是有用的预测日本的通货膨胀率。
Abstract We construct business cycle indexes based on the daily Japanese newspaper articles and estimate the Phillips curve model to forecast inflation at a daily frequency. We find that the news-based leading indicator, constructed from the topic on future economic conditions, is useful in forecasting the inflation rate in Japan.