Ageing, pension reform and capital flows:: A multi-country simulation model
Ageing, pension reform and capital flows:: A multi-country simulation model
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-0335.2006.00526.x
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发表时间：
2006-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Winter, Joachim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boersch-Supan, Axel;Ludwig, Alexander;Winter, Joachim
人口老龄化和养老金改革将对国际资本市场产生深远影响。为了量化这些影响，我们建立了一个计算性一般均衡模型。我们用世界七个地区详细的长期人口预测来支持这个多个国家的世代重叠模型。我们的模拟表明，从迅速老龄化的地区流向世界其他地区的资本最初将是大量的，但当家庭储蓄大幅减少时，这一趋势就会逆转。我们还得出结论，养老金改革的封闭经济模型忽略了国际资本流动在数量上的重要影响。
Population ageing and pension reform will have profound effects on international capital markets. In order to quantify these effects, we develop a computational general equilibrium model. We feed this multi-country overlapping-generations model with detailed long-term demographic projections for seven world regions. Our simulations indicate that capital flows from rapidly ageing regions to the rest of the world will initially be substantial, but that trends are reversed when households decumulate savings. We also conclude that closed-economy models of pension reform miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.