Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa.
Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa.
复制标题
将水文学纳入气候适宜性模型改变了非洲疟疾传播的预测。
DOI：
10.1038/s41467-020-18239-5
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Smith MW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Smith MW
大陆尺度的疟疾气候适宜性模型通常将完善的温度响应模型与使用降雨量作为代理的病媒生境可用性的基本估计相结合。在这里，我们表明，在整个非洲大陆，疟疾传播的气候适宜性的估计地理范围是更敏感的降水阈值比应用的热响应曲线。为了解决这个问题，我们使用7个GCM的降尺度每日气候预测运行一个大陆尺度的水文模型的蚊子繁殖栖息地的可用性的过程为基础的表示。随着水通过排水网络和河流走廊成为全年的传播中心，疟疾适宜性出现了更复杂的模式。据估计，适合疟疾稳定传播的水文气候区域比以往模型所显示的要小，而且在最新的未来气候情景中只会有很小的增加。然而，观察到更大的地理变化比大多数降雨阈值模型和模式的转变是非常不同的，当使用水文模型来估计地表水的可用性为载体繁殖。
Continental-scale models of malaria climate suitability typically couple well-established temperature-response models with basic estimates of vector habitat availability using rainfall as a proxy. Here we show that across continental Africa, the estimated geographic range of climatic suitability for malaria transmission is more sensitive to the precipitation threshold than the thermal response curve applied. To address this problem we use downscaled daily climate predictions from seven GCMs to run a continental-scale hydrological model for a process-based representation of mosquito breeding habitat availability. A more complex pattern of malaria suitability emerges as water is routed through drainage networks and river corridors serve as year-round transmission foci. The estimated hydro-climatically suitable area for stable malaria transmission is smaller than previous models suggest and shows only a very small increase in state-of-the-art future climate scenarios. However, bigger geographical shifts are observed than with most rainfall threshold models and the pattern of that shift is very different when using a hydrological model to estimate surface water availability for vector breeding.